e-Article
Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories
Document Type
Article
Author
Foreman, Kyle J; Marquez, Neal; Dolgert, Andrew; Fukutaki, Kai; Fullman, Nancy; McGaughey, Madeline; Pletcher, Martin A; Smith, Amanda E; Tang, Kendrick; Yuan, Chun-Wei; Brown, Jonathan C; Friedman, Joseph; He, Jiawei; Heuton, Kyle R; Holmberg, Mollie; Patel, Disha J; Reidy, Patrick; Carter, Austin; Cercy, Kelly; Chapin, Abigail; Douwes-Schultz, Dirk; Frank, Tahvi; Goettsch, Falko; Liu, Patrick Y; Nandakumar, Vishnu; Reitsma, Marissa B; Reuter, Vince; Sadat, Nafis; Sorensen, Reed J D; Srinivasan, Vinay; Updike, Rachel L; York, Hunter; Lopez, Alan D; Lozano, Rafael; Lim, Stephen S; Mokdad, Ali H; Vollset, Stein Emil; Murray, Christopher J L
Source
The Lancet; November 2018, Vol. 392 Issue: 10159 p2052-2090, 39p
Subject
Language
ISSN
01406736; 1474547X
Abstract
Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts —and alternative future scenarios—for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories.