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2026년 2월 학위논문(원문파일/인쇄본) 제출 안내_원문파일 제출 기한 연장 : ~2.20.(금)

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'학술논문' 에서 검색결과 116,192건 | 목록 1~20
h it Drought igohccausrsw in el v is i rt a normal l as ulao ll wya ra ll i , re ncfla im curring featur ll a a ti rcearse . g I im t e is s . e I of climate; severity levels) and the vulnerability of society to the aberration, atteom cc puorrsariyniesveanrt. esTuh lt e o na fttuhrealoecvceunrtre (i n .e c . e , m of etpeeorrsoilso te g n ic tallad rg ro e-usgch al t e ) m rai annfe al nltafreeaatsu in r contr . Meaonfythpe ast to eocp li lmeaatseara id nid ty , i s which is sociate th re estorc ic ctuerdtao per­ disruptions in the global circulation pattern of the dr rence lo owftah tm er oesp is helrie td . e E , xipfoasnuy re th tiongd , ro th uagthtwvearc ie asnsd pa o t ia to ll yaa lt nedrm Pl oaoiurngs ht wedo if f f ic N ith most of Auo lt rythv is A ua m li esri ic f a ri , caa , nIdn ng droug d A ia u , s C tra h l ina, ht in So ia u ; th tthheey Great drought occurrence. Vulnerability, on the other hand, B east A ha si vae , d is e m de otgerrampihniecd ch bayrascotceira is l ti fcasc , to treschsnuoclhogays , ppoop li u cy la , ti aonnd , rTerhgaizo il, wes is nfsacpt erc tern Euro em e p iv heads is beyspme, anoyrttohehae both the vaes te arsn Uni region uarlplauns te odfS tates, social behaviour. These factors change over time, and nature of d re w la attievre . r th es upsonvsue ln teoratbhielsie ty c h is a n li gkeesl . yStuobs increase or decrease in cussed in mdo ro re ugdh et t a , il a la cthearriancttehriisstc ic hatph te art . will be dis­ isdaemne ti c re agl io in n w in il tlenhsaiv ty e , did ff uerraetn io tneefqfu ec etnst , d ev ro eungihfttshe in ytahree in D th reouagm ht oiusn th teocfonpsreeqcu ip ein ta cteioonfarencae tu iv readl re odvuecrt io anntcehra is ntg ic esd , because societal char , acatned ri st sipcas tia w l il c l ha hraavce ­ leexntg en th d , e d al tpheoru io gdhoofth ti emrec , li u m su a a ti l c ly faacs to erasso ( nsuocrhm as orheigihnvdu is lcnuesrsab . th ilHe it ow sye to ev ac derro , umg uch can be d tions fhrto , m an mdasnuybs one reeqgue to ntlecshsaepnt societal te ional and edrisscw ip il ­ l w ar mepoefr te a n tures, high winds, and low relative humidity) linary perspectives. th oerledv and a c ss aoncisaitgendi fi w ca it nht ly it aigngrm av aantyertehgeiosnesveo ri f ty thoeftphre in criapeanlt. Dr iny sseeaassoonugohfto is c als on, occu c r ur o re rneclea , teddeltaoysthienttihmeinsg ta r ( t i. e o ., f Because drought affects so many economic and social p th ri encriapianlsc ( rio . p e. , grroaw in tfh al lstraegnecse ) aonf rains in relation to intensity d , n the effectiveness of a se vca to ri rest , yscoofreds is coifpld in ef eisn . it Iinonasdhda it vieonb , ebeencaduesveeldorpoeudgbhyte cl viemna ts ti ) c . T ch haursa , c te eraicsh ti cs d ro aungdhtimypeaacruimsbuenr iq oufe ra iinn fa it lsltohcecug rs lo w be it , h in vaa ry l ing frequency in nearly all regions of Magalhaes ts. For example, developed and ltdyepvees lo opfinegc on coomuinctrs ie yss tem al s i , kea , ndth in e y cl eiam rs attihcadt if ofeetreanl. c e ( s19b8e8 tw ) eheanvef iv v e iv c id olnysp ec o u in ti tveeddoruotug th heta id peporlooagcihceasltdaik ff eenretnoce define it also reflect regional and and ccurred in northe s (Wilhite 1992). Impacts also timin 1g9o8f3r , ai nno fa ti lnlg an d th iemcpraic ti tcsaalstliB nk ra azgielsb . ebtew tw ee enen19t7h9esdo if cfieert al spcaotn ia tlelxytaonfdd ro te umgphot. raA ll y u , ni dveep rs eanldd in e g fi ni o ti nonthoef dur D at riooung , hitntseenvse it r y it , y a is nddegpeeongdreanpthin ca olto ex nl t y en tonof the dGrloaung tz h t ( 1i9s 85 an ) cuonnrcelau listic expectation. Wilhite and specific dro a should reflect a regio dneadltbhia as tdse in fi cnei ti w on at serofsudp ro p u ly g h is twmaatdeerbsyuphpu li m ug ahnt ac etp iv is i o ti d es e , anbdutveag ls e o ta t o io nntohneadreem gi aonnd ’ s s larg D el eyfianiftu io nncst io onfdorfocu li gmhat ti ccan re gbiemcea . tegorised broadly wi es. The soc th ie ty it , s ec f o ar n -o re mayc , hianngcdhiaem ra pca te crtiss , t ic msao ke fdirtos ug ef hfte , ctaslo nviron onngaGs la enittzh er 19c8o5n ). c ep Ctoun al c ep otruaol pe dreaftiinoin ti aolns ( W ar i e lh it oefatnhde not M im an pyo ss piebo le p , letociodn en si t d if eyradnrdomq ent uugahntt if dty if o . ficult, though dictionary t be largely atdheesccro ip ntc io enptyopfe , d generally defining of th ro e ug p h he t, naonmdetnhouns . the boundarie a F re orgeenxearm ic pilne , thseo ir frneaatlu it rya , l or the compone dnrpohu ysical t. Tghhet ri h ev as e nt b . oFtihg ur ae1n .3 atiu ll ruasl tra atn es d th saotc , iianlE 19 n 9 cy 6 c ) lo dpeefd in ia e sk associated wsodfroCulg im ht a te as a ‘a nndeW xt eeantdheedrp (S e c ri hondei -d er atrh eg e io enveinsta ( p i. reo ., dupc ro tboafbb il o it tyho th feoc re i g th iodnr ’ osuegxhptos fo urrean to yrseelaasto iv n e , taoytehaer , stoar ti sste ic vaelramluyletairysea -r omfedaenfifcoirenatre ra giinofn all currence at various These types of definitions are useful for furthering ’
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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IPnad lm ex e r (P Darlomuegrh1t Sev United States, an 9d6t5hea ri n ty dI1n9d6e8x , aAnldl Crop Moisture et al. 1987). On the other hand, it is indeed ra e Yield Moistur eey In 1d9e8x4 ) ( Jionsetheetedv ro er uygyhetanr. oFttooreexxiasmtipnlea , pFo ig rt uiroen1o .5 f th il e lu ssetrcao te usnttrrieesfo in r al. 1991 hat in tiinve th ly enU ew ) in the Philip ni tienddeSxtatth es atisistpgia ne he iSnstiaanngndid elsew anrcdriezaesd in h g ere. Pr epcopAu ipit la re ri ltay ­ tdhreouU gh ntitiesdofSttean te g s, retahteerp th er acnen1t0agpeerarceeanta . f T fe hcu te s d , th beyI1n9d9e5x ) . (SPI), developed by McKee et al. (1993 ation governments of these larger countries are more drough Atisdiisncculsusd io ed nionfc se li v m er aatliccihnadpitceerssfionrtm hi osnvio to r a in ngdaec st caubsltio sh meedda to dealing with water shortages and have in Part III (Monitoring and e lume actively. For n sm ianlf le ra rsc tr ouucn tu tr riees, toitriesspmoonrde , l a ik lb el eyit th re a -t n lo igqiuceasl ) . inFdo ic reas , csoemepOalriid so ap noo ( f1s9 ev 8e5raarl ly p op wualranr in mge te te ocrh o­ ­ tuhseuael ntire coun ). scale ly anroem gi aoln ie asltrpyhm en aoymbeenaaff -e cttheedysrienscueltdrfo ro u m gh ltasrgae re -dur A at n io o n th . eDrrdoiusg ti hntgsuu is shuian ll gyrfeeqau tu ir reeaomfidnr im ou ugmhtof is t its that become es ta in b li asthm ed o sp ahnedr ic p er csiirsctulfaotr io n p er piaotdtse rn osftcoontthirneueemfoonr th msotnothbsecoormeyeeasrtsa . bl T is hheedmbaugt then cwaon mo Fnrtohms, sae as p o la nns, n o in r longer. drought impacts is closely related t nitude of teristics of drought ghapveerssp er eicotu iv sei , mtphle ic astp io a n ti s a . lNcahtairoancs ­ tohnesedtuorfattihoenporfectihpei ta etv io e n nt . shTohre ta g fi e o , tih ts eitn im te ing of the should know the probability that drought may simul­ dr ve-year ( n1s9i7 ty 9 , -a 8n3d ) r ta enge io onuss ly w a it f h fe in cttah ll eiorrbsoervdee ra rs l m an aj dordcervoep lo -p procdounctiinng ­ y th eiosusge ht in northeast Brazil is a good case in point. In gencies if such an event were to occur. Likewise, it is du arrisngirn ie tsh th oefcyleaas rs, 1979 and 1980 were both drought important for governments to know the chances of a sonal rain e fa lplritnocsiipcaslernasieny ( i s .e e . a , so a significant deficiency regional drought simultaneously affecting agricultura tals were slightl n y ) . a b In ov 1e9n8o1r , m th ael, sbeuat ­ pnreoad rb uyctn iv aittiyonisnotnhew ir hocm ou tnhte ry yaarsew de e p ll e n as deandtjafcoernftooodrltdhreo ug te hmt. po Irnal 19 d 8 is 2 tr , ib tuhtei on ra in re fa slul lte to d t al isnwaegrrei cu ble tu lo ral supplies. In some inst normal, but the temporal distribution of precipitatio wnfdrroomugnhetam rb i y ti gnaattiioonnss , tr iagtneagny ces, a nation’s primary was conducive to crop development. Agricultural drought may have signif o ic ri nmgatyhebel ik to e li ihmopoodrtthfaotodaw im e p re a ct fsow llo e w re e d le ss bya dv th er ese. mTohset se ant regional impa sefvoeurre ‘d drroouugghhtt ’ yyeeaa rs r w fo oord ld w su ipdpelioers . inLtihkeewpirs in e, citphaelgorcac in u -r e re xnpcoer ti onfgdnrco ts ugohntm (1 a9t8 ic 3 ) ago ri fcu th lt e u ra plre im vi poaucststw (M en atgya -f lih ve years, with dra­ such as occurred during the ENSO event of 1a9t8 ions, aes et al. 1988). (Glantz et al. 1987, Glantz e2-3 cha D ra rco te urg is httiscs. al T so hedair ffer in terms of their spatial nificantly alter a developing cou tnatlr . y’ 1s9a9c1c ) e , ssmtaoy fo si ogd ­ e sh viofltve fr ogm ra dsueaalsloyn , a to ndser as affect ea esgoino . nIsnoefdb lar m ge ayrxism ev uem re idnrt ought from donor governments. as Brazil, China, India, the Unit ceodunS tr tiaetse , e n su si cthy
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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n ar eegattaikveenco to rr e im la p ti loynsa , p th hy essieca ‘ ltelliencko nnectio key va between ntphaet te lo rn ca s l ’ w (1 a9s7o2n ). tFhoellpoowiinntgosfoemmeeirngc in on gcilsusc iv oentw ai onrekdbiynoLtahm er bsm Gl aapnstzrioeatblael . a1n9d9t1h ) e . widely distributed one (e.g., see (e.g., by Berlage and DeBoer 1960), Professor Jacob pressure f an pdr ec wiapsi ta atiW on a , l ke te r m produced teleconnection Bjerknes at the University of California at Los modes of interannual blcel im to a te idve perature, and surface Angeles made the key step forward by demonstrating nise today, including the South anerrita if nbyi li tthyethlaatrgweestre scale that the atmospheric teleconnection patterns were North Atlantic O Oscillation and c o th g e ­ p eq a u rt atoof ri aalcPoaucp if liecdOmco ea dneaonfdinttheer ac gtlioobnalbaettmwo ee sp nhteh re e was Inaba le d d to it icoanr ry to scb illation. (Bjerknes 1966, 1969, and 1972). It is now clear that of fortunate circu omuste ing a first-rate scientist, Walker other parts of the global ocean also participate in the the art of statistics htaahn is work because of a confluence Southern Oscillation, manifested through changes in matical tool of the ob d se cdeesv . e F lo ir pset, shortly beforehand, sea surface temperature and the overlying atmos­ also a very ab rvational dscriaepnicdelsy . aWsaalkm er atwhaes ­ phe B ri ycctih rc e u la la ti toen. 1970s and early 1980s, climate o st fat ti hse ti cIsnd (W ian alM ker le1 99 m7a ) t . h H em av aitn ic giatn ak ewn ho understood scientists were able to document the relationships gained the oppo ertteuonrio ty lo tgoicc al Departme th netijnob19o0f3h , e h ad ehRyap sm ot uhsesso is neda nd byCaB rp je ernktneers 19 in 8 2, mwoh re odd is e c ta uisls ed (e . tgh . e , m re aqtuhierm ed ata ic a la l rg oepesrta aff capab alreryoofupteh rf is orsm tu idniges, m w an h u ic ahlT So hue th ceorunplO ed sco il cleaa ti n o -n a / tEmlosNpihneoreasvaaricao ti uopnlecdenstyrsetdemo ) n . W ve a ry lk p er raw ct ais able to t m io ankseoanmeax jo te rne si f v fo e rt d a to ta so se lv ts e . tShoeE th NeSeO qu a ( t E or l ia NlP in ac o i / f S ic oiustnhoew rn co Omsm cil oln at liyon re ), f er a r ed p h to ra saesA ra n in oftah ll e , rkaencaalcp ti rvoib ty le m th aotfh pr aed dicting Indian monsoon coined in planning documents for the international by the earl yyfyaecatrosrowfasthtehattwietnh sta taidejru te t st dbe in c om th eep1 os 8s7i0 bl s e . Tmreonpti . caDlO ur cienagntG he lo b 1 al 98A0tsmoasnpdh er 1e99 (T 0s OGaAs ) ereix es p er o i­ flsaurfgfe ic -s ie cnatlence li amr-agtleob va arl ia d ti aotnas . to de hsccre ib n e tu raynd to agnaatlh ys eereom ur p iri ucnadl, e m rs o ta dned ll iinngg , aonfdtthheeo re p ti hcyaslicsa tu l di m es e c in hcarneiassm ed s 192 T3heansdtu1d9 ie 2s4 , bWyaW lk a e lker and others (e.g., Walker aad ss voacnicae te sdinwiutnhdEeN rs S ta O n . diAngdettealielceodndnie sc c u ti sosn io pnao tt ferrencsen in trge lo la b ti aol) nsshuirp fa s ce exp is re te s d su rbeertawnedenB li lsasrg1e9 -s 3c2a ) le s h ( o i. w e. e , d n that the TOGA era (1985-94) can be found in Trenberth patterns -in particular, tphaettIen rn d s ia n an sdum re m gional rain efaarl -l et aTl. h1e 99 i8deanntd if i A ca ll tainone ta o l. f 19 so 9m6. e of the physical v ra aitn io fa nlal. l W ev a id lk eenrc ’s erfeosreatrhcehepxrio st veindceedo th feefr monso an ir osrtgaonbisseorn ­ m rev ec it h a anism ed conne l c is t e io dnsi nt aesrseosct iated with patterns. in A W se a ri lekser’ osENfp SO has st ruedciiepsi ta w ti i o th n g re te alte ly -glo more wHoerbcaal-ls le cda le tpk did no hi tsattthee rn hav Soofuitnh terannual climate variability. complete data sets (e.g., Kiladis and Diaz 1989; expected because, efotrhe re a im e p rn acOt scillatio sons th tahtartemma ig n. htI in unh itia nc alveel ly ar b , e h th einsrReocpoenlfeiw rm sk eida se nvde ra Hlao lp f e th rt et1e9 le 8c6o , nn 1e9c8t7 io , ns ansdu gg 1e9s9 te 2 d ) c so o o rr n e la ptr io ec nispib ta et t w io enenwtehaekepnreed ss uarbeopuatt te th rn esta im nd e m th oene ­ cboynW ne acltkieornsa . ndRootphee le rs w , saknidaindde nt H ifi aeldpeardt di ( t 1 io 9n8a7ltaen le-were discovered. Th y 1989) attempted to improve the usefulness of tele d ­ taitmtehemomsitdodf le thoefetah rl eec tw or ernetliae ti tohncsesnttruernyg , th beuntebdyag th a a in tcdooncnuemce ti notn patterns y work ha ing regions foorfstehaesognlaolbcelitm ha att , eipnreaddidcittiioonnb to y fille Adc in ru c w ia alspaap rt hyosfictahleepxipcltaunrdebteheantfro em rg aoitn ten atio ed . to be a m ls e o re lhyadshroew la itn io gnssh ta itp is stiw ca ilthEN EN SO SO -p rtehca ip t it w at eiroenhliignhklsy , t te hleecSoonuntehcetrinonOp sc aitltleartn io s. n A ju rsetvaisewaonfk fo nrow th leedogbesaeb rv oeudticdoennstiisftieendttfhreom se aespoin so sdaend to reegpiiosn od seo . f T th h e ey g p lo a b rt eicw ul haerr ly physical explanation precipitation was associated with ENSO in at least 75 e
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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scto th ara ti rsetc ic te s d ( M mo OdSe ) l . f S or m ec it ahstadnad ta are called model output 1994). The state of ENSO is only one of many factors obs terevveedn SS gi T v en a perfect SRSoTp el feow re sckais ( t 1 -9 9i7 .e ) ., shtohweu (K se r d is hn to aKfuom re acrae st t al t . h1e99I5n ) d . ian summer monsoon m to oid ts elEuNsS ed O -a r t -N t C he E P cu rrent operational atmospheric Ward et al. (1993) discuss the useful level of skill In their study e , la ftoerd ty r -a fi i need vne fa lylspastu te brsn ta snfto ia rlpa ra d c ju ti sctamleun se ts . m of a d tr eop in ic a re l al n o ti r m th e A by f ri tchaenU fo KreM ca e st tse or th ol aotgihcaavleOb ff eiecnee (h xianm dc in aesd ts ) fo bra se th d e on specif e ie a d rs ( oofbsseeravseodn ) alSS fo Trew ca esrtess re in la ctei on 1s9h8i6p . swTih th esgeloabrael ly ladrigsetlry ib ubtaesdedSSoTn , SS st Tatiin st itchaelm ea o ch d el sism imulation wapserrieopde at 1e9d50 th -i 9r4 te . enEa ti cmh es s , e w as hoenraelpSoonue th n t. A O tla vnetrict , hean la dstade re claad ti e v , eltyhesm re aalll -ti EmNeSfOo re ccoam sts ­ u initial co unldaitt io io nnswatso st easrttiemdatwe ith th e s lig mha tl gynid tu if dfee ren otfvhaalviedah te addahisnkdic ll asstismim lar adteotwhiatthotbhtea in seadme fr osm ta t c is rto ic sasl -v av anrp ia re ti doincs ta ble and therefore random atmospheric methods. The chief limitation to further progress is a rai enrfaag ll edf or tion th ca elcm ul oad te e l. thTehebtehsitr te meondseilmeus la ti t m io antseao re flsaecaksoonf ( gJluonbeal th tr roopu ic gahlSSeSpTtefm or beecra ) s . tsAvcaclu id ra f te orfo th re ecawse ts ttgylpoibcaall ly v , a a ri l th ea ocuhghgitvheen seasonal SST pattern. Quite of ENSO would help, but would in most years be well, it sho at w io ends in sem as oodneall re ra piln ic fa altledpa th tt eeronbs se qruvietdeifn al sluffo fi rceiceanst. tsAatrmeoaslp so heu ri scedd , ynbaumtitchaely -m oondleyl -h baavseedusreaf in ul ­ T re hgu io s ns fo rofptrheec ip w it s a ystematic or tlido , n -t rhee la tmesdpaa ti pap ll l y ic var odel pre a d ti i o ct nys in g in biases. skill with lead times of a month or less before the require some kind ions wmoaun ld y r th ai antf al hlusm ea asnoin ty ( Fhoa ll sanidncerteaals . ed1 99 th 1 e ). Istuisscaelpsto ib p il o it s y si b o le f g ki ennderoaf te bdi as byadajuM stm OS ofteacdhjnuisqtumee . n T ts h , e perhaps those tropical west Africa to drought through the pro­ production of operat einot places a huge bnue rd ed en foorntthhiesg co re vsesrivoevreerdu re c c ti eonntd in ecnaedaers -. coTahsitsalcw ha e n st geAfirn ic a th nefolraensdtM because each time the m na oldd el y n is a m ch ic aanlge fo d r , eacansetwmsoedteo ls f s (e u . r g fa ., ceElb ta ohuinrdaan ry dhGaosnbgee1n99s6 ho ) w to nhbayve se v th e e ra lpo au te tnhtoirasla ne O ed S e statistics must be calculated to provide the to weaken the north African monsoon. More studies nneacleys si d sa s ad ojfu ry Msm tm u e lt n id ts e . c T ad h a is l re en qu se ir m es bltehsetgoe ne orbatta io in natnhdetorfopp ic oasls ib nloer th re g A io fr n ic aalnarnatihnrfo al p l, ogaesniwce ll inafs lu efnocr es on fundamental OiSmp st rao ti vse ti m cs enatnsdtuond th eerssecom re osdtehles , nseuecdh fo as r reg W ion ar sdwe it thaml. a ( r 1 gi 9n9a3l ) seaalssoonadlisrcau in sfsaltlh , e a re sk n il eleo de odt . her tahboosvee . related to the flux adjustments, discussed m tim ad eefboy re c th a e st sff real­ UK orM th et eeon ro olro th g e ic aasltOBfrfaizcielsw in ectes1e9 as 8o7n . dro Kungohwt le p d re gdeico ti fonEsNS in O m is a n in ysup ff airctisenotffotrher eg w io o n rl adlT se hviesreisa relatively dry area, subject to intermittent lbeescsaium se p o in rt a th n ese regions its influence is either small or Hastenr dartohuagnhdt. c T ol hleasbeorfao to re rs c a ( set . s g , ., asHw as etlelnarsatthho1s9e95b ) y , p ea ro st foBurnad zil an t than other factors. For instance, north­ are mainly statistical, although real-time dynamical patterns ( lFyo ll iandf lu west A nd eentcael. d frican w 19 b9y1 , H tro ept ic saela so Ant la ra nitn ic fa ll astenrath 1995, WSaSrTeM for eetceaosrtosl og hiacvae ard based on tropi lcbaOlAfefe ic n e . mTahdee st saitn is ctei cal 19f9o4 re ca bsy ts tahreeS1S9T 97 ) i . n In th aeddtirtoipoinc , aplaIrn ts d i of the Sahel are affected by on ENSO SSTs. On tl aanv ti ecraSgSeT , t a ro npoim ca allyAp tl aatn te ti rcnsSaSnTdsF Si o m ll i a la nrd ly , eltocaall . SS 19 T9p1a , tt Bar anns to Onceaannd (P Sam lm ith er11999866 ). , h re agvieonaboofuSt ou tw th ic Aem th e e ri cian , fl aule th nocue gh ofexEtN re SmOeE fo NrStOhs is , A no urstth ra w li eas , tnooftA ab ulsyt ra ilniatih er e ns influence precipitation in such as that in 1982-3, can dominate the circulation Drosdowsky 1993, F n re d th IendA ia uns tr O al c ia enanw north and and precipitation patterns over tropical South ericksen and i B nt aelrgo ( v e. ign . d , A sis m te e n ri t c ly a . h T ig hhe le r v ea el l -t o im f e sk iflol, resc im as itlsarhtaovethhaatdobatac in oend ­
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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ahcutm io annslairfee , m pr oosptee rt f y fe , c a ti nvdep if roddo uctive capacity. These is a critical element of the hydrological system. fervoem nt . o T ne hena ty tu preaslohrafzoarrmdstoofam no it n ig eaitn io nadavcat nce of the Information on the status of snowpack conditions can m ther. Droug iv hitt -i reeslavtaerdyfporroevciadsets co onfsb id e e lo ra w b -le noardmvaalncse tr dealm ea f d lo t w im aend fo rrerseelr ia vbolierf th ro it m ig ati e in tshioosne act diou u s se io dnfsoraroet , h e for the most part, different levels. gation is the indaetnutrie fi coaf ti ohran za artd ural hazards because of •Monitoring and early warning refers to activities with previous droughts a n of t . heAifm ir psatcsttsepa ss in ocm iat i e ti d ­ tdheacti si pornovm id aekeirnsfo at r m al a l ti l o ev neltsho at ftchaenobneseutsoefddtroouaglhetr . t w th ietshefium tu praectds ro (a ungdhtotehvee rs n ) daarnea li skseelsysm to enbteoafsw so hcei ther This information can be used by planners, emergency actions can be identifie n d ts. From this point, spec aitfeidcimmapnlaegmee rs n , tpporlo ic g y ra amnmdedsecainsd io pnom lic aikees rs th , aatnwd il o l th he elrpsttooo fu f t ur im epdarcotus gh atsseovceinattse . d Pa rttoIV re edm uc pehatsh is eesim th peacr ts of reduce the risk associated with the hazard. Moni­ geographical settings as wwie th ll adsrom ug et hhtodionl og viaerasinoguest to doa ri cat tia ng activities include the collection and analysis of quantify these impacts. Part V considers adjustment user o , ndo at fadaptraodpu ro cdtudcetvsetloopdm ec einsti , onanmdak th e e rs caonmdm ot uhneir ­ a an nddaPdaarpt ta V ti Ioncosn tr caetn eg tr iaetsesemopnlopyreedpatroed re ndeu ss cem im et phaocd ts ­ h in aza s r . dDsabtuat in a cludes not only physical data related to olo the definit lisoon so ocfiavlualn ne drabb io il lio ty g . icA al d co a m ta ptrheahtenassisv is ethgaavtg io ie n s , pr iong st ria tu m ti m on es alaanrdr an a g ct eim on esn , ts a /c nadpapco it liiecs ie , s miti­ drought monitoring system would include the collec­ imp e a ct bseo en f dr oorugchotu . ld be employed to reduce th th aetp ti roenc ip o it f a tio cl n i ) maastow lo el gliacsals tre daam ta f lo ( w e. , g r . e , se trevm oi prearnad tu grreouanndd ­ t • oPrienpcarreeadsneestshe re fleervseltoofprreedaidsiansetsesraocr tivities designed w se a n ter levels, soil moisture, snowpack, and remo improve oper­ cast ssedodfataagfrriocm satellites. This information is useful in ftoerley ­ aan ti on eamlearngdenicnys tit ( uet . igo ., naelacra ly p ab w il air ti neisng fo rsryess te p m on s, d in ogpetro ­ itnod ri i n ce gsatnodte ra acru ly ltw ur aarlnianngdtehcyhdnrioqluoegsi , cianlcldurdoiungghtth . e M us oeno i­ f u at sieofnuallfpolrands) e . no Fto in rgdrpor ught, contingency plans are them in a histo kriccu al rrent d ogrammatic responsibilities; contex ro t, u is g h th teco su nbdjie ti cotnosfaPnadrttIoIIv . iew p im ol p ic rioevsinbgetiw nf eoernmaatn io dnw fl iotw hi nonlesveev ls e ri o ty, im and coordination between levels of gov fergnomv pac eenrtn ts m , ean nd . t; d •P ec re is diiocn ti / opnolriecfyermsatkoerascw tiv it it hieasdtvhaantcepd ro fvoirdeecauss ts eros and D f the m sh a ro l ught i oul pdarntoosfan th i e nsidi t be vi ecw li e m ou aste nat d as m of ural hazard tha erveilrytuaalp ly hyaslilcarletg is pihoaensn no . omIrt ­ o ­ a fo crcm ur s r , ebnu ce tporfodbraobu il g it hyt . These forecasts can take many enon. Rather, drought is the result of an interplay p n re ddi in ct tieonnss it . yoFrorseecvaes ri ttyo ) fiso ccurrenc accu ursaucay ll yiaes so (t c im iat e e , ddw ura s highly viatrh ti o th n e , w be attw er eesnua natural event and the demand placed on between natural iable be consi pdpelryedbyrh el uam tiv aen -u to se ssoym ste emlso . nDg-rtoeurgmhtasvheo ra u g ld eidm ro puogrh ta ts ntincom ns oishtapzaarrtdssoafntdhe is w pa orrtlidc . ulLae rl deration for drought fore aydltiimm it eed is f a or condition of balance between precipitation and so d casts as well n , eva M po atnry an dsepfiirnaittiioonn . s of drought exist; it is unrealistic a in ncdorepco is riaotnem th akers are given ample opportunity to to expect a universal definition to be derived. Th the imple imseinntfao ti romnato io fnmiin ti g p at liaonnn in pr gogsrta ra m te mge ie s s . sDpreocu ti g ve htc as anfboe ll ogw ro s: u pe mdetbeyortoylpoegiocfald , isc hiypd li rnoalroygipcearl ­ , c lo agse ts reof is m al estoeoarno lo im gi pcoarl ta d n ro tudg is httinacn ti don th boe se tw oefenhyfdorroe -­ ian gric ical drought, especially in regions where snowpack so cco io rup ltur ec o o ra ntaels , d an omic if d f fe re snotc ioeco actors ipnhy it s n ic oaml, ic b . s defini io E lo agcihc al, d is a cipline tion. It mu nsdt /o be r
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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a (o m ft oeunnti ) n an cdom th p e arison to som inten duration of tehenodrrmyaplero io r d. avTeh ra ugse , b cu y l ti a v lt aetr io in ngprtahcet ic cerso . p, genotype, planting date, and m th u es sesid ty ef iann it d io ndsu . raM ti eotneoarroelotghieca key characteristics of Agriculture is usually the first economic sector to phe t be considered as region spe lcid fi rcosuignh ce ttdheefiantim tio onss ­ abreeao ff f e te c n te dqub ic ykd ly roduegph le ttbeedc , aeusspeec so ia illlymiofis th tu erepesruipopdl ie osftsaotm io ric cendaoerfen diti ini c ti l o im on astethraetgriemseu lt dienpe deficiencies of precipi­ moisture deficiency is associated with high tempera­ on the ns differentiate me n te doernotl . ogFiocraledxraomupglhet , tduurreisngan th dewgirnodwyincgon se d a it sioonnsi . s T cr h it e ic a ti l m in in tgheofdertaeirnm fa i l ­ llm es asgn th abna si ssom of e th sepencu if m ie bderthorfesdhao ys l with precipitation nation of impacts. Crop or forage yields may be nor­ (e.g., itude of the deficiency over so dmreap th e e ri rod th o an f ti t m he etm im al eloyr ( i a .e b . o , vceo in ncoirdm in aglwdiu th ri n cr g i ti acadlrpohueg no hltog if icraalinsfta ag ll esi ) saOsrm ga unc fo h r Britain, fifteen days, none of which received and effective (i.e., low intensity and high soil infil­ in thos iz aeats0. rieogni215 on 93m6m ]) . oSfupcrh ec a ip idteaftiinoint io [B n ri is ti suhnrReaailn is ftailcl trat H io yndrroaltoeg ). ical droughts are associated with the effects c se oam so mno al n . an M d os etxst where precipitation distributi m en e d te eodropleorg io ic daslw dr i o th uoguhttrd ai enff in al oln is of periods of precipitation shortfall on surface or sub­ relate actual precipitation depa itio a n re slsaukre fa cleevw els a , tegr ro su upnpdlwya ( tie .e r) ., rsa tr th ea emrftlhoawn , rweistehrvpor ir eca ip nid ­ a ti mmoeun sc tasleosn . H monthly, seasonal, wa rtteurreyse ar t , ooraavnen ra ugaeltHay ti dornolsohgo ic rt aflald ls r o ( uDgrhatcsuapreetusaul. al1 ly 98o0u , t K of le pmheaSse1o9r8l7a ) g . are Aegqruiaclu ly lt uvraarliuam ble a . n perceptions of these conditions tdhreo ug o h cc ts u . rrM en e c te eoroof lo g m ic e a te lod ro ro lo uggihctasl re asnudltfargorm ic u p lt ruerca i­ l m on etperoercoilpoigtiacta io lddrroouugghhttto li n a ks various characteristics of pitation deficiencies; agricultural droughts are largely and potential nesvhaopro ta tr gaenss , gdriifcfuelrteun ra cles im bpea tw cts, focusing the result of soil moisture deficiencies. More time deficits, and piration (ET), seoeinlawca tu te arlien la o ps th es erbceo fo mrpeopnreenctispio ta fttihoenhdyedfr ic oileongciiceasla sy re s te d m et e (e c . tge . d , cdheapreancd te ern is tto ic nsop re fvoa rt i h li . ngAw plant’s demand for water is reservoirs, groundwater). As a result, impacts are out growth, and s t he ofphtyhse ic al sp eeactih fi ecrcpolnadnitt , i ons, biological of phase with those in other economic sectors. Also, the soil. and biological p it rsopsetratg ie esooffw riv a e te rs r ) i n is hoyfd te ro nlougsiecdalfo st rom ra ugletispy le st eam nd s ( ceo .g m ., preets in er gvopiu rs r­ , dorfocu ro gphst sh Aonu ld opaecrcaotu ional definition of agricultural poses (e.g., power generation, flood control, irri­ example, adted fi icfifeen re tnstub st natge fo srotfhe cr voap riable susceptibility gation, recreation), further complicating the sequence stage wil soil moisture idneavneleoaprm ly egnrt. o w Fo th r a in n d th q es ueansttiofriacgae ti osnyso te f m im sepsaccatlsa . te Csodm ur pientg it idornoufg or htw , aatnedrrseoq il u ir m em oi lsthuarveeliist tle su impact on final crop yield if top-conflicts between water users increase significantly. moisture en ctosn . ti Hnouw es e , v ffi ear ci , einft th teodm ef e ic eiten early growth The frequency and severity of hydrological drought result. substantial yie c ld y o lo fsss ub m so aiyli ( s19o6f6 te ) n de dfeifniendedaadtrotuhgehtr iv yeerarbaassionnescian le . whW ic hhiptphlee the The impacts of drought are crop specific because a ru gngo re ff g . atLeow ru -n fl oofwfifsre less than the long-term average betw m ee onstcrw op ea s. thPelra -s netn in s g it idvaetepshaenndolm og aitcuarla ti s o ta ngepserv io a d ry stfiomremapney ri osd tr efaam lls s . bIefqu th eenca ie cstuhaalvfelobweefnordea te srem le icnteeddahlisgohv te a m ry p between crops and locations. A period of hydrological drought lioswc on a si cdeerrtead in tothbreesihnop ld ro , gr th es esn . d se rnysic ti ovnedi era g ti roonts ur wt hmeasy tr ecsositnhca id teocw cu it rhsiancarsis ti occailatw io enatw stage for one he it r h -b Hio li w ty e v th ear, ttm he usntubmebeexrco ee fddeadystoanddeftihneelaevheyldorfop lo rgoibcaa ­ l c ca ri n ti coafltesn ta rgeedu fo crea th neotrh is ekro cr fodpr . o A cr gorp ic while missing a drought period is somewhat arbitrary. These criteria ught ium lt pua ra cltpolnancn ro in pgs will Tvhaeryibm et p w ac etesnso tr f e am hy sda ro nldog ri ivcearl ba dsr in osu . ght in an
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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m of ona itoring is therefore an important component as US$5,while the importin real-ti nmyedm ro oungih to t rin p g re p m ar eetdhnoedsssuss tr eadt eg iines. Ke TnhyeatbiamgesofasmhaiigzheadsurU in S g $ 2a0dw ro g price fo it uhg in htapsepra io rdtihse so sa mmee ­ d n (d eip sc eunsdselda rg aeb ly ovoen ). th Seom raingauge network design three months. Such drought industries omftuwsotb to eisnucclhudreedc or sdas te l h li atvee -d enro iv t ed e rece be erna in cfaanltl me libr eas te ti t m ho a ds have discouraged. rainfall es d fo te r s , pob in utt8dFiiangannocsiiasl , prreesdoiucrtcieosn , faonrdddrroouugghhttpm re opnairteodrn in es g s , t to hreingg lo bmaettih mates in Kenya. Other drought moni­ are limited in Kenya. Kenya has, however, 3 Efficient lccoloi ds de mmm at uenc pend ic eanttiroeson (e . cgl . i , mEaN te SpO ro ducts from invested heavily in meteorological training, edu­ for the collection, dis n facilities ar feo re re ca qsutisr ) e . d9cTa im tio e n ly , an a d va bia la si bcilfia ty c ilit o ie f s. drought products and ndeattwa/ o in rk fo irsm ation. Th seemaivnaaitliaobn le , acnodmem xc uhnaincgae ti oonfm ser e v te ic oerso lo fr g o ic m al g se lo rv bia ce lsc in li mtahtee re cgeinotn re s r el Myaonny4pRreespeaarrecdh nes nsoatndadeeaq rl uyaw te arfnoirng an syesftfeem ct . ive drought tdhreo ug d h ev tea lo dpve is d o ri w es orflrdo . m Su th cehcp li r m od at uectcsenitnrcelsudoefadcrto io ungsh . t pr ios ce re s q se usira ed to understand the complex ENSO advisories and global circulation data. very limi R te edso in urK ce esnyfaon . rdm th e e te ir orsoolcoigoieccaolnroem se iacrcihntaerre ­ S tim uc e h . iTnh fo erm in a st t a io ll n a ti is onsoomfetth im eensewnoitntaecrcneestsifbalceilo it ny5D re rqouu ir geht sp m ec oinailtoe ri qnugiyp diagnosis, and predic at the Kenya Meteorological Department will facilities including s ment and high techno t lo io gny 10 A sig nne if diu ca cnattleyd im an pdrowveellt -h iinsfoprrm ob eldem pu . blic is likely to 6 p Sk uitle le rs d , hwuhm ich are limit peedciianlK in esnty ru a m . ents and com­ rceastp io onndanbdetttrearin to in agnyofntehweppoulbilciyc, / mmeatnhaogdesr . s , Eadnud ­ tHhue ma mnulrte id so iasn ci prleisnoaurryc es di a m re e n required in handling policy makers is an important component of any ological conc uerpctessof fo drrohuagnhdtliansg io n th seo ba f s ic drm ou e ghts. drought preparedness strategy. This has not been However, they need speci re available in Ke tneyoa r­ . coopm tim pl u ex mmiunl ti K di esncy ip a l , ineasrpyed ci raolu ly ghitn in ltiegrhatc ti oofnst . he ecfofm ec p ti o vely address the co amltprlaeixn in mgutlo ti d b is eciapb li lneatroy 11 iSnttrruocdtuuc ra ed laadnjeuw st m di e m nt eno si fon th ientW he orrledgiB on ansk in ce haist7M ba iss ic mcahnaeln le ts that could be required to address the discourages government subsidy, which has been a mation n ag henm ge esntofadn ro dugahbtupsree pa orfeddnreo ss ave u . ght infor­ pmraojvoirdipnogst-bdarso ic u gh fo toedmeirng en tchye re dlr ie ofug st hrta -t setg ri yckfeonrpdo ro li u ti gch al t , in afnod rm baete io nnohbasse rved in some cases when region. The method was adopted during the citizens, dono rs o , ther gai b ns e en byu se sdom fo ereicnodn iv oim du ic al , A dr cotuognht28ofJ1 an 9u9a6r -y 71b9y9i7n . v W ok iitnhgou th teem Pu e b rg li ecnSceycfuoro it dyh general public. Inansdomoe th ecrasseast , tdhreouegxh pe tnasdeviosfortiheesrceolm ie mfoadnid ti es g ov in e rn t m he e nt dr souubgsh id t-ys tr o ic n k en b asi rce gi foonosd , cmo av memboedein ti eas bu an sed through hoarding of essential including provision for subsidised seed prices when aft aerrkertecweiitvh in in gaidnffeow int rmm rod a o ti n u th ci sng at thhiekm ed bpa ri cckes to the the rains started, the impacts of the 1996-7 experience drought with oinn that one countr . yEw ve il n l dro Iutgm ht aywobueldcohnacvleubdeeedntvheartyadle th va osutg at h in K g. enya has cdoounnotrrsyhatvoebeexepn known to caon fe ti wnumepornetshssi , ngso th maetm an i tt ieneteu rm nd in eirs te th ri ealod ff iiscaes te orfm th aenapgreem sid eenntt, co a m nd ­ fmuinndisma fo l prices boyrtgu th ar e a ir n te gerianigntrheesye rv weis ll p at r ov viedreyvm id aenyreo le th va enrtm se in citsotrearliadl ro su ubgchotm in m fo it rtm ee ast io th nattoptrhoe ­ export pr ricgerafionra im b p ag oro ts f m in aiczaese is o so f m dr e o ti umgehstsa . s T lo hweiann te irnm te in girsa te te r d ia lna co tu m ra mlitdtiesea , stK er epnryeapadroeedsnensostphoa li vcey
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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National Drought Mitigation Center for the forty-eight contiguous states in the United States demon­ strated that severe and extreme drought affected more than 25 per cent of the country in twenty-seven o of ft7h5e0p ,0 a 0 st 0omnie2h (1 u , n9d4r2e , d50y0 ea k rs m . 2 T ) h o is rrm ep orrees . ents an area con D tr raosutg to htf lo s o el ddso , m hu rrre ic su an lt ess , inansdtrtuoc rn tu ardaol es d . a m Fo argteh , e s in e reasons, the quantification of impacts and the pro­ vision of disaster relief are far more difficult tasks for A fif lttyho ye uagrhsaT go an , n c ehill’s book was written m drought than they are for other natural hazards. recognising the li omnasteotloogf ists continue to strug o g re le twhiatnhtEommeerdgetnocydem al a in ngagweirtsh , ifm or paecxtasm th p a le t , ar aerestm ru ocrteu ra alccaunsd ­ p cr oiltiecry ia ) m fo ak redresclcaor ntinue tdor ou d g eb hat te a nd th e sc ie bnatsiissts (i a . ned ., lcoocm al m ise udn , i ca re ti sopno nd an in dgttroa ns th peosre ta t e io v n en ts c ha bnynerless , to p ri rnog ­ acc Second, the ab in se gnacneeonfdatopraecdirsoeugahntd . universally vdird in in k g in gemwear te gre , nacnydm so edfiocratlh . s T up h p es li eesc , ha ernascu te r r in is g ti cs sao fe f a it bsoeupttewdh definition of drought adds to the confusion drought have hindered the development of accurate, mu dsetgb re eeeotf her or reg s io ev nerai ty n . oRtneaald is rto ic uag lly h , tdeexfiisntistiaonnds , oiffd it roduogehst , a re nld ia , bl uel , tiamnadtetliym , el tyhee st fiom rm ate u s la o ti fon se voefr it dyraonudgh im tpcaocn ts ­ T th haitshiasvoenbeeeenxpdle an d at iaopnplfiocrattihoens ( coor re im spoafcdt) efsipne it ciio fi ncs . ting Heanzcayrd pl aenvsenbtysm ha ovsetbgeoevnerrnam nk eend ts b . y Bryant (1991) faincaalty io se ndsm tud o y re , th vaenl op 1e5d0 . W de iflihniitte io annsdiGn la th n e tz ir (1 c 9 la 8 ss 5 i ) ­ roannk th in egb is assiusmomftah ri esierdcihnarTaacb te le ri s1t . i1c . sKaenydhiamzp ar adctcsh . aTrh ac is ­ ddeeffiinne it idornosug are annudmemraonuys , mmoarney ex diost. noAtl th ad oeuqguhatteh ly etoefritsh ti ecsdu eg se re defoorftsheivsee ri v ty al , ulaetn io g n th inocf lu edveenatn , e to xtparlesasrieoanlp ar oel ic a y rb m i akers h . t T in hemteharneisnhgofludlstefromrsde fo cl ras ri c n ie gntd is rtosuagnhdteefxfteecn ts t, , tlootnagl -l toesrsm of im li p fe a , ctt , otsauldedceonnnoem ss i , calnod ss , oscoccu ia r­ lteox am sp pelceitfriacryim in pam ct o s st inc as keesy (i e . ceo ., ntohm ey ic ar seecn to orts ) l . i nk FeodrA re lntcheouogfhatshseocriaattiendgshoafzatrhdesvfao ri rou th s ir htayz -a orndesihnazTaarbdlse . pmeor cent , owfnho at r m is atlhperesc ig ip niitfa ic ti aonnceovoefraatphe re ri sohdolodfo th fr7e5ep1r .1 ova id re essuabnjeicnttievge, rattheedoavsesreaslslm ra ennktiosfuh se afzualrdb ec cahuas ra eci ­ tsee spe nctihas ll yormmio sl reea ? d A in gdeffo in r i ti looncao ti fon th sisw ty it phewa ou st lrdonbgetBee ri csatu ic sseoafntdhetihne te nrse it lya , t io dnusrhaitp io s n , baen tw desepna tia hlaezxatredns. t s ty ta p as eos na olfcporm ob ploenm ent of annual precipitation. These of drought events and the magnitude of associated init n io d n in s g an odftthheelcsaocn are kceopft th beytrheo su c se lt f o or fmau la m ti insgunddeefr ­ ­ icm og pean ct t s , a d rg ruom ug ehntt , ra hnokwsevveerry , h th ig aht . t O ot naelc lo asnsmoafke li fe aaop th p e ly rtshce ie dne ti fsitnsito io rndiin sc a ip clt in oenssiw de il rlateivoenntguiavle ly n n to ee dhotwo associated with drought in this case is significantly assessments of impact in u m al uld ti rpoluegh ec tosn it oum ations (e.g., d ov ro e u rr gah te t d . isLo ra srseoifnl if meo th sattsies tt d in ir gesc . t ly T h as esorcain at keidngwib th yrderlo ie ufgphrtogdreacm la m ra e ti s o ) n . s or revocations for eli igcibsie li cttyortso , dBrroyuagnhtt. atT tr h ib is uitses in a lo pspsroopfr ia li tfeesb in ecceau th se eporfim fa a m ry inceautsoe spre Tahdi rd ov , er draoluag rg hetrigmepoagcrtaspha ic re a nonstruct of famine in recent decades has been civil war or that result from other natural haz laradrse . aFtohraneudraamla and political strife, both of which heighten vulnerability to recent analysis of drought occurrence by x th aemp ( lUeg , eassdS) fa yrsotu em ght. mine s . anDdrocu an ghbteeavesnitgsnid fi icsarnutptnaftouord al p tr riogdguecrtifoonr
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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tth ra rdoeugphropbo le omrss ; top ra o g st e -; h w ar avteesrtelroosssieosn in ofth th eefsio el idl; aan nd d form Th a e ti omnajionrK tr eannysapoarrtestohfem re o g is io tu nraelim nl oannsdofoonrarlaw in i fall ma D ny roou th gehrt , prhoocw es esveesro , fisentvhie ro nmmae jo n r tal degradation. systems. The direction and speed of these winds al nsdotchua lt tuh ra alspbreoednucatsisvo it c y ia ; te sh dow rt iatghesanonfuaelndaetfu ic riatls disaster affect the pat nergy, fo o in d , aagn ri d ­ T ov weortdhies ti rnecgti te m rn osnsoofotnhaelcwoinn vective processes inland. water; famine; and devastating impacts on many other Both converg oeno , vnearmKee ly nynaoardn th sdaynsd te m so sua th re ecaosm ter m lie osn . n se a c ti toon rs a / lsesrovciicoeescotnhoamt ic fo d rm ev eilnotpem gr e al components of torial eastern Africa during the oatuhteurmpna rt asndofsepq ri unag ­ sdursotu ai gnhatb le im spoacc io ts e co li nnogm er icfd or e ve se lo v p er n al t . ySeoam rs e ment can , of th aenrd th ensoe seas efore w na inncoens. ofHon wever, Kenya is largely u ds durin ogr th th eeasso te urtlhye /s ronu /n th o rt ehaesr te nrd ly erm th oensdooom na i­ l m be enatchsite ra vteedg ie wsitfhooructopprio ng pewrip th la n su n c in hgda ro nudghm ts a . naTghee ­ w so innsd , sryesstpe ectively. The patterns of n th esummomnesroosnea a­ l m str aajtoerg ie csommpuosnt en in ts c lu odfesdurcohugdhitsam st o er n it m or a in na g g , edm ia egn ­ t low levels, m by scao re m p si lgenxif to ic paong tl ryapmho ic dailfipeadt , teersnpse . cially at ndo ro si usg , hptrepdriecpta io re n d , neefsfs ic p ie o n li tce ie asr . ly warning systems, and i m nte I on rTsh CZ oeomni sp mhaerrkis al wind c t sy nhsoer th co tems n . evTaeh st regreez ly n ce a nd ofstohueth lo ewa -s lteev rl eyl has Tahdids re rsesve ie dwfoo ur fkperyeddirco ta ubgih li ttyi ss oufesK , ennaymaenlyd : rought n ov o e rt rhh ea adnsdun south of the eq ounaetotrh er feoflo lo re m , and often lags behind it by thr w e in igg ra ttheese to five • • d so ycniaom ec ic osnaonmdicc auses weeks. ITC imp ; acts, including the recent p ow at itn er gnstoantZhe is veexriy st edn if cfeu se oaftc th oemlpolw ex letvoep ls oignra Keny d many large inland water bodies, pwhhiiccaal , • p in rteedg ic ra ta te b d il i g ty lo pbraolsepfefcotrst ; satnod address such problems; poo ft neenntisntirnod th u e ce se bao so th n al zomniaglraa ti nodnm ov eerr idional com h ­ • challenges to drought prediction in Kenya. zonal compo Kenya. The A as tsloacnitaitce / dCwoint en ng hot / hteof in th fl euxI Zaire bTao CZ, si fnms, ofsotrw ex whic ehsatm er p li lees , fhraosmbe th en e
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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rangeofcon te mpo ra ry G reek speculation . Itiseasytoforget how lo ngitw as beforetherew as an ylarge body ofo rth odoxChristiantheologicaldoctrine . Itisama tt erofsixorsevenrather th a n one o r tw ogener ­ ationsafterChrist 's dea th before we find , inC le mentofA le xandr ia and hispupilO rig e n , thefirstcomp re hens iv eattemptstoexplicatesystematically , in G reek philosophicalterms , theperfectionofG od, H is relationtothecreation , theun io nof body an dsoul in hum an b e in g s an d so o n ; and much ofwh at these tw o men ta ughtw as far fro mtheeventualor th odoxyoftheChu rc h . Indeed , thefirstcreed in te ndedprimarilytosettletheologicalissues , rather th andiffer ­ encesinethicalop in io norchurchritual , w as thatissued by theCounc il ofN ic aeaof 325 A .D . Aga in , itw as o n ly graduallythat th eChu rc hdef in edthecanonofHo ly Scripture . Foral th oughthegospelsw ere a lw ays , ofcourse , ta kenasrecordsofGod 's w o rd , theaccep ta nceof th e O ld Tes ta mentasadivinelyinspiredtextw as notcomp le te untilthe se condcentury . 143 W ith thecanondefined , itw as notdifficultforaChristiantoseethem ain pointsma rk in goffhis th e o lo g y fro mthatofthevariousG re ekphilosophicalschools . For 142 ChristianityE dw Y o rk , 1957 ), C ( f in Hathiarpstterpchu , The In11b . lished , flLuoenndcoeno18f8G8 ; rereekpIrdinetaesd , o n New 143Ibid . . 316 -1 9
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Origins and Species ISBN: 9780429450198
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eppeirsocdeenst . oTfhtehequm as oir -e glm ob aarlkesd ca lEeN se SaO warm ture (SST) patterns associated wistuhr fa E ce Ntaenmdpceorlad ­ R bution of rainfall as a functio SO that sta ogpees le w of skEiNaSnOdcHaanlpoefr te tn1b9e9no5i ) d . efBEeNcS au Ose st tah te e ( eea .g., influence these rainfall patterns appear consistently in more before typical ENSO-ntified a season r o ly rfmoarnryecreencten de tcsa tu d d es ie , s P -ar kee .g r ., anHdsF iu o n ll ganadnd19N9e1wseilnlc1e9t8h3ereepc is oogdneith io ansiomfp th oer ta e n ar tlyprsetdarg el easteodfdarodu ev gehltospcionmgm EN en ScOe, late Idne in nt eitfe ic eanttihonc entury. However, one of th ic e t ive m value. precipitation relatio onfs hip tshepsreo vid ceo ain limitations sntsh is etecnlte are E st NiSnO di -­ E ac NcS or O d -in b g as teod th s e ea h so is ntaolr ic parlerdeicco ti rodn , EsN ch SeOmeissaicst iv tehaot, fce ation that seasonal meteorological drought in quite its warm or cold phases only about half the tim ienux se te fnuslisvkei ll a r ( e i. aes , ionftthheehg is lo to bre ic m al aryecboerdp , reEdN ic S ta O b -l reelw at i e th d S co in ld ce 1e9p0 is 0 o , dteh er yeeahrasv , e b ac eceonrtdhiinrg ty w to a rm th aendSnoiunteh te e e rn n . idtnryth con he aepspedroa it prie on r a ia s s ). occu te Fsiegaursroeat2 leas ns, .3 whsth7o5wsp ere p e th rocse recip entre of the time Osc itatio gi nondse , fiacn it dsJSoonue il s l at ( i1o9n87 In ) dex-based criterion of Ropelewski and are strongly associated with the warm or cold phase equa th to errinalPOas . c The cif il ilca tio clos se n a su Iendreex la tio (S n O sh I i ) pbaentdw ee cne nt trhaelo tu freEsNiSnOth -e i t . reo ., piw ca alrm ea sotrPcaoclid fi c s . eaAlstuhro face tempera­ d rface temperature anomaly may not occur consistently with every wuagrhmdorroucgoh ld tFu ig r u in durin re ggm2.4o all . s t su Ioffptr he twentieth century is illustrated in ENSO episode as appropriate, these regions do have a dr ch E ec N ip SiO ta ti eopn is owdeerse , sbku il tfun ll oytportehdeircw ta ibslee , tch le aanr -l n y or i m de anltsie fi aesdo na ilncco re nadsie ti d o ns p . r T ob haebliiln it k y wi o th fEdN ri SeOr-r th es eouotuigrm ht p ce e s . H re odw ic etv io enw managed r, ecvroouplsdm on ulsytbbeeppolsasnitbeldeaabnoduwtahtaelrfcba il n it ybedifso tr rim bu al tiisoend by ca ery year. s condi ltciuolnaatl in ognptrheecisptiattaet io onfEpN ro SbOa . ­ m ho awneyvedrr , ouEgNhSt-Op ro is nenortegtihoensonAlsy is disc . The farce to la r u ssed tiv in el f y lu ebnec lo in w g , T hi h st uosripcrae ll c y ip o it bas ti eornvepdr edic recent shif ttison in sctahnebperobb as aebd il iptuyredliysto ri n ­ g at a m in ossipnhu er nedesryssttaenmditnhg ro oufgch li m EN ate S O as satucdoiueps le h d as olceedan to
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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upstream portion of a river basin can also extend For example, the supply of some economic good ldo ownstream as reduced streamflow may result in (e.g., water, hay, hydroelectric power) is weather n lo o c we tateirorxness , erevvoeinratnhdouggrhoum ndwater levels at downstream dependent. In most instances, the dema ist in this portion oef te tohreolboagsiicna . lRde ro duug ct h io tndsoe in sagn oo d d /o irsipnecrrecaasp in it gaacsoansru es mup lt tioofni . n T cr heearse in fo grnpd for tha e, opdu ro la utg io hnt reservoir and groundwater levels in downstream could be defined as occurring when the demand for tppuob rt liiocns of th duction, wraetcerre basin e at siuopnp , l ie msa , y h re ysdurlote in s transportati loenc , terr ic io us p o im w pacts on that good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-ot agricultu erre , parnod ­ rceelpatteodfsdurpopu ly ghstho su rt p fa plol rt ( sSatnhde fo srtd ro n1g97s9y ) m . b T io hsiissctohn at ­ m str heearms ectors. Conflicts between upstream and down­ exists between drought and human activities. Thus, 19 a9n4yfr wa o iv retrerb use an eaxsa in rss may mpl ienftrhree su U lt, as has been the case in the incidence of drought could increase be om th nei te MdisS so ta utreisR ( isveeerBOapsp in e ) r . cchha an ng gee in in so th ci e e ta flrevquu ln en er cayb il o it fytthoewpah te yrsischaolcaeuvseenot, faaw In h te errneartiivoen rs altrw an astceernddisnpau ti te osnaolfb te onrdaerriss , e su in chsiatsu atio rtages, or Middle East or between the United States ina th nesb ov o e th rg . r For example, nd increas aezs in o g il cea ro nsd io e n cr epao se oran la im nd a -l ucsaer ry pr in ac g tice , which exacerbates th ceaipsacsiu ty chanads Me T xi hceo . discussion up to this point has focused on the a es npdecviu al llnyerraeblielv it aynttoin fu t s ure droughts. This e m xa p m ac ptlseo is fodn is ste inctions between the types of drought during its Africa, Australia) and e in miaarre id a s re ogfiohnis ll y ( e o .g r ., sl Soopu in th g phase t or development pha drough otfd ty rpoeusgm ht a , y th deififnetre . rsree . l a During the termination terrain (e.g., Lesotho). understanding the termin Faitg io u ti roe nships between these During drought onset, agricul n tu p1h . a4se is sao ls fodurso ef uuglhitn
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Droughts ISBN: 9781315830896
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[검색어] Ly, D. R. B.
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