부산대학교 도서관

One-third of total CO2 emissions from deforestation in the 2000s took place in the Amazon region, in Brazil. This paper examines the effectiveness of a locally-led policy—the Green Municipalities Programme—in curbing illegal deforestation in the Pará state, part of the legal Amazon. We combine a regression discontinuity (RD) design and a 10-year high-resolution spatial dataset (1,781,122 pixels covering 162,242 km2) to evaluate the programme’s impact. Evidence suggests that municipalities reduced deforestation only 4 years after joining the programme at about 0.01 km2 within the optional bandwidth (10 km). The effect comes mainly from municipalities traditionally with lower deforestation rates. This effect represents avoidance of 0.02 MtCO2/year released to the atmosphere, or USD 1.7 million per year of avoided damage. Since Brazil has committed through its NDC to eliminate deforestation in the Amazon by 2030, decentralized programmes focusing on indirect benefits appear to be effective only in the long run, serving as a “bonus” to support regions with relatively higher levels of forest cover.