부산대학교 도서관

In Korea, the occurrence frequency of earthquakes has recently increased compared to the past. In neighboring countries such as Japan and China, damage from major earthquakes has also increased leading to high earthquake risk. This study quantitatively estimated the occurrence probability and frequency of huge earthquake using statistical frequency analysis on instrumental earthquake data at East sea in order to cope with earthquake damage. After adapting Various distribution functions such as Gumbel, Lognormal, Gamma, and Weibull for earthquake data, we applied mixed distributions to reflect the characteristics of the occurrence of earthquakes. The results show that the mixed models estimated earthquake magnitude larger than the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation, and the mixed Gumbel distribution estimated most closed values with the G-R equation. It was found that the G-R equation is very limited to estimate a huge earthquake since there is no observed data over magnitude 8.0 and the frequency analysis is also limited to be applied in practice because the lack of data induces high uncertainty on the estimates of 1,000 year-earthquake. However, this study has an experiential significance in that the statistical frequency analysis was applied to instrumental earthquake data at East sea as an alternative.