부산대학교 도서관

本稿の問題提起は「なぜ安倍首相は長期政権が可能だったのか」であり、その要因を明らかにすることが研究目的である。分析は相互作用アプローチの状況的要因のうち、有権者の支持に焦点を当てて行った。 分析を通じて、自公政権に対する「消極的支持」が自民党の「熱狂なき圧勝」という結果をもたらし、それが超長期安倍政権の誕生につながったことを明らかにした。また、第2次安倍政権の長期執権要因は、主力野党が存在せず、野党が多数の政党に分散していたためという「野党の分散度」で説明できることを明らかにした。 自民党の失政と内閣の頻繁なスキャンダルにより、自民党内閣が有権者の批判に直面しても、自民党は総裁の交代を通じた「55年体制」当時と同様の疑似政権交代を試みるだろう。野党が分裂している現在の状況下では、野党への真の政権交代は不可能と思われる。そして、これは日本の有権者が選んだ7年8ヶ月という超長期の安倍政権が残した「負の遺産」ではないかと考えられる。
The question posed in this paper is “Why was Prime Minister Abe able to remain in power for so long?” and the purpose of the research is to identify the factors that contributed to this. The analysis focused on voter support among the situational factors in the interaction approach. Through the analysis, we found that “passive support” for the LDP led to the LDP’s “overwhelming victory without enthusiasm,” which in turn led to the birth of the ultra-long-term Abe administration. We also clarified that the reason for the long tenure of the second Abe administration can be explained by the “degree of dispersion of opposition parties”: there was no main opposition party and the opposition parties were dispersed among many parties. Even if the LDP cabinet faces criticism from voters due to the LDP's missteps and frequent scandals in the cabinet, the LDP will attempt a pseudo regime change similar to that of the “55-year regime” through a change of presidents. Under the current circumstances in which the opposition parties are divided, a true change of government to the opposition seems impossible. And this may be the “negative legacy” left by the very long Abe administration of 7 years and 8 months, which the Japanese voters elected.