학술논문
중국 주택가격과 은행대출의 상관관계에 관한 연구 / An Analysis of the Relationship between House Prices and Bank Lending in China
Document Type
Dissertation/ Thesis
Author
Source
Subject
Language
Korean
Abstract
1998년 중국 주택 체제개혁 이래 중국부동산시장은 빠르게 발전하고 있고 국민경제에 대한 진보에 중요한 역할을 하고 있으며 부동산 산업은 국민경제의 핵심산업으로 되는 동시에 주택은 국민의 생활과 기본 필수품이 때문에 국민의 소비에 거대한 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 근년에 중국부동산가격은 급격하게 상승하고 있기 때문에 이미 중요한 사회적인 이슈가 되었고 부동산가격 문제를 제대로 조정하지 못하면 심각한 사회적 문제를 초래할 수도 있다. 따라서 어떻게 급격히 상승하는 부동산가격을 조정하는 지와 정부가 부동산가격에 대한 정책을 거시적으로 통제하는지가 이미 국민들의 초점이 되었다.은행대출은 부동산기업의 개발자금에 중요한 출처이기 때문에 부동산가격에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 또한 국가의 금융정책은 부동산 가격을 효율적으로 억제할 수 있는지, 동시에 은행대출 중에 부동산의 비중이 제일 크고 부동산가격의 변동에 따라 금융기관에 영향을 미칠 수 있는지에 대해 본 연구를 통해 중국의 전국적 주택가격과 은행대출의 관계에 대해 실증분석을 진행한다.본 연구에서 월별 데이터를 기초로 전국 주택가격, 은행대출, M2, 공업부가가치, 이자율의 2007년5월-2015년7월 총 99개 데이터를 정리하고 분석한다. 실증분석은 주로 단위근 검증, VECM분석, Johansen 공적본 검증과 Granger 인과관계 검증, 충격반응함수, 그리고 분산분해를 포함하고 Johansen 공적본 검증 결과는 공적분이 한 개가 존재한다; Granger 인과관계 검증의 결과를 보면 주택가격은 은행대출을 서로 영향을 주고 받았으며 인과관계를 이루었고 VECM분석은 주택가격이 은행대출에 서로 정(+)의 영향을 미친다고 보았으며 결론 부분에서 결과를 통한 정책적 의견도 제시하였다. 따라서 이 분야의 연구에 대해 공헌을 할 수 있기 바란다.
Since real estate reform in 1998, real estate market has bloomed in China, which plays an important role in stimulating national economy. As pillar industry of domestic economy and necessity of life, real estate has influence on consumption. Recently, the price of houses has grown rapidly. The reason is that the real estate market has related to domestic economy and public life. How Chinese government prevents the increase of house price through macro-economic control policy becomes the heart of the matter. Bank credits become the most important resource for real estate development. It is necessary to check whether it affects house prices and credit policy is able to prevent the increase of prices in real estate market. Also, the loan of real estate accounts for the largest part in bank loans. This thesis will research how the float of house prices has influence on financial corporate, namely the relation between house prices and bank loan. This thesis mainly collects the 99 monthly data, including house prices, bank loan, M2 and industrial added value between 2007 and 2015. The case studies base on unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, VECM analysis and Granger causality test. The result of Johansen cointegration test shows that the four facts exit cointergration relationship. Granger causality test supports that house prices have a causal relationship with bank loan, but contrary one is not correct. House prices and bank loan have positive correlation through VECM analysis. In conclusion, the thesis gives some meaningful points, which will make a contribution to future research.
Since real estate reform in 1998, real estate market has bloomed in China, which plays an important role in stimulating national economy. As pillar industry of domestic economy and necessity of life, real estate has influence on consumption. Recently, the price of houses has grown rapidly. The reason is that the real estate market has related to domestic economy and public life. How Chinese government prevents the increase of house price through macro-economic control policy becomes the heart of the matter. Bank credits become the most important resource for real estate development. It is necessary to check whether it affects house prices and credit policy is able to prevent the increase of prices in real estate market. Also, the loan of real estate accounts for the largest part in bank loans. This thesis will research how the float of house prices has influence on financial corporate, namely the relation between house prices and bank loan. This thesis mainly collects the 99 monthly data, including house prices, bank loan, M2 and industrial added value between 2007 and 2015. The case studies base on unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, VECM analysis and Granger causality test. The result of Johansen cointegration test shows that the four facts exit cointergration relationship. Granger causality test supports that house prices have a causal relationship with bank loan, but contrary one is not correct. House prices and bank loan have positive correlation through VECM analysis. In conclusion, the thesis gives some meaningful points, which will make a contribution to future research.