학술논문
공공투자 의사결정을 위한 수요위험 기반 VfM 분석 연구 - 주요국 비교와 사례적용을 중심으로 -
Demand risk for public investment decision-making: A research on Value for Money (VfM) evaluation with cross-country comparison and case application
Demand risk for public investment decision-making: A research on Value for Money (VfM) evaluation with cross-country comparison and case application
Document Type
Article
Source
한국정책연구, 23(3), pp.49-70 Sep, 2023
Subject
Language
한국어
ISSN
1598-7817
Abstract
사회기반시설을 추진함에 있어 민자적격성(Value for Money, VfM) 분석은 정부의 직접추진대안과 민간투자사업 추진대안을 결정하는 핵심적인 절차이다. 현행 VfM 분석은 각 대안별 정부의 재정부담을 비교하는 방식으로 수행되고 있으나, 각 대안별 정부의 위험부담은 정성적 영향을 선언적으로만 고려할 뿐, 정량적인 분석은 이루어지지 않고 있다. 특히, 수익형민자사업에서 수요위험은 대안별 재정부담 규모에 중대한 영향을 주는 요소이기 때문에 이를 고려한 VfM 분석이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 민간투자사업을 추진하는 주요 국가에서 활용하는 VaR(Value at Risk)방식, 할인율 적용방식, 낙관적 편의 방식 등 위험 계량화 방식을 살펴보고, 이 중에서 VaR 방식을 활용하여 수익형 민자사업의 수요위험 계량화를 시도하였다. 본 연구에서는 실제 추진된 도로사업의 VfM분석 사례를 기반으로 현행 방식을 적용한 VfM분석 결과와 수요위험을 추가적으로 반영한 VfM분석 결과를 비교함으로써 수요위험의 영향을 살펴보았다. 분석 결과 수요위험은 직접추진대안과 민간투자사업 대안에 대한 정부의 의사결정 결과를 바꿀 수 있는 정도 중대한 영향을 줄 수 있으며 공공투자 의사결정에 고려해야 하는 중요한 요소인 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 그간 선언적으로만 이루어졌던 위험을 계량화하여 VfM 분석에 반영하여 정부의 투자의사결정에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았고, 향후 사업의 평가방식 결정이나 정책적 의사결정에 개선방향을 제시였다는 점에서 의의가 있다.
Value for Money (VfM) assessment is a critical process that determines the feasibility of the government's direct investment or public-private partnership (PPP) investment. The VfM assessment involves calculating the financial burden for each alternative and determining the most viable implementation method. However, to ensure rational decision-making, demand risk should be carefully considered. In many countries, demand risk is quantified and factored into the VfM evaluation process when promoting PPP projects. Various methods such as the VaR method, discount rate application method, and optimism bias method are used to quantify risks. Demand risk, in particular, can significantly impact decision-making. To assess the impact of demand risk, this study conducted a VfM assessment of a road project and found that the reflection of demand risk had a significant impact to the extent that it could change the direction of the government's investment decision-making. The study aimed to quantify the reflection of risk, which had previously only been done declaratively. The quantified risks were reflected in the VfM analysis and examined for their impact on the government's investment decision-making. The findings of this study serve as reference materials for future project evaluation methods and policy decision-making.
Value for Money (VfM) assessment is a critical process that determines the feasibility of the government's direct investment or public-private partnership (PPP) investment. The VfM assessment involves calculating the financial burden for each alternative and determining the most viable implementation method. However, to ensure rational decision-making, demand risk should be carefully considered. In many countries, demand risk is quantified and factored into the VfM evaluation process when promoting PPP projects. Various methods such as the VaR method, discount rate application method, and optimism bias method are used to quantify risks. Demand risk, in particular, can significantly impact decision-making. To assess the impact of demand risk, this study conducted a VfM assessment of a road project and found that the reflection of demand risk had a significant impact to the extent that it could change the direction of the government's investment decision-making. The study aimed to quantify the reflection of risk, which had previously only been done declaratively. The quantified risks were reflected in the VfM analysis and examined for their impact on the government's investment decision-making. The findings of this study serve as reference materials for future project evaluation methods and policy decision-making.