부산대학교 도서관

COVID-19의 충격과 함께 진행돼 온 사회·경제 전반에서의 양극화는 시장에서의 생산 및 소비 활동 변화에도 지속적인 영향을 미치고 있다. 유통산업의 경우 팬데믹 시대를 맞아 비대면 중심의 구매활동으로 소비행태가 이동하게 되었으며, 이로 인해 야기된 전통적 대면서비스 산업에 대한 수요 위축은 전반적인 국내 경기침체로 이어지게 되었다. 본 연구에서는 통계청 가계동향조사 데이터에 기반해 COVID-19가 야기한 팬데믹 위기상황에서 국내 가구들의 소비생활 안정을 위해 시행된 정부지원금 지급정책의 유효성을 성향점수매칭에 기반한 이중차분모형(PSM-DID)으로 실증분석하였다. 분석을 위한 이론적 배경으로는 SOR(Stimulus-Organism-Response) 모델을 고려함으로써 팬데믹 위기라는 외부 환경적 자극(S)에 의한 국내 가구들의 소비심리(O) 변화와 이에 따른 전반적인 지출 수준(R)을 유통 마케팅의 관점에서 설명하고자 하였다. 분석 결과 국내 고소득 가구의 경우 식품군 및 일부 필수재 품목에서의 소비는 늘어났으나 취미용품군에서의 지출은 오히려 줄어든 반면, 저소득 가구나 1~2인가구의 경우 식품군 및 가정용 가전과 같은 일부 실용재 품목과 더불어 주류 등 비필수재 품목에 대한 소비지출 역시 유의하게 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 팬데믹 대응을 위한 재난지원금 지급과 같은 제한된 시간 내에서의 소득보전 효과가 제품군과 가계특성별로 소비지출 수준에 어떠한 차이를 가져올 수 있는지 제시함으로써 향후 유통기업의 차별화된 마케팅 계획 수립과매출 확대에 필요한 전략적 근거를 제시할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.
Purpose: The polarization in the society and economy, which has been progressing along with the shock of COVID-19, continues to have an impact on changes in production and consumption activities in the market. In the case of the retail industry, consumption behavior shifted to non-contact purchasing activities in the era of pandemic, and the contraction in demand for the traditional face-to-face service industry led to the overall domestic economic recession. Using the household trend survey data of Statistics Korea, this study empirically analyzes the effectiveness of the government subsidy policy implemented to stabilize domestic households’ consumption life in the pandemic crisis by a Difference-in-Difference (DID) model based on propensity score matching (PSM). Considering the SOR (Stimulus-Organism-Response) model as a theoretical background, our study explains the change in consumer sentiment (O) of domestic households due to the external environmental stimulus (S) of the pandemic crisis and the resulting level of household spending (R) from the perspective of retail marketing. Research design, data, and methodology: In this study, the pandemic crisis is understood as an external environmental stimulus, and the change in consumption behavior according to changes in consumers’ psychological emotions is explained through the SOR model. Our study views a government subsidy as policy interventions aimed at boosting domestic consumption during the early pandemic period, and how the effect of government subsidy varies depending on product categories and household characteristics is examined. Our study uses household trend survey data in the second quarter of 2020, when the first disaster subsidy began to be paid, and the second quarter of 2019 for comparison as a control group. The household trend survey data provided by Statistics Korea is a national representative cross-sectional data conducted every month for the purpose of identifying trends in household economic activities, targeting approximately 7,200 ordinary households residing in Korea. In this study, the household trend survey data in the second quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2019 (for households with one or more persons nationwide) are used as a treatment group and a control group, respectively. A total of 10,712 household samples are used for the final analysis. The following PSM-DID model is considered to examine how the interaction between the first disaster subsidy policy and whether or not each household received a government subsidy affects the households’ consumption expenditure across product categories. In equation (1), i represents each household, j represents whether it is a treatment group or a control group, and t represents the period before or after the pandemic. The main coefficient of interest in the proposed model is β3, which explains whether the first disaster subsidy policy during the pandemic had a significant effect on the change in domestic households’ spending across product categories. Results: and show coefficient values estimated through the proposed PSM-DID model for each product category. β3 is a coefficient of interaction term representing the effect of government subsidy during the pandemic period, and it is found to have a significant coefficient value although there are differences by product categories. This implies that households that received the government subsidy significantly increased or decreased their consumption for certain product categories, despite the overall decline in household spending during the pandemic period. Specifically, domestic households’ consumption spending increased significantly after the implementation of the government subsidy policy, especially in the grocery category such as meat, vegetables, and alcohol, as well as durable goods such as clothing and outerwear, shoes, home appliances, and medicines whose demand rapidly soared during the pandemic....

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