부산대학교 도서관

This research aims at understanding and analyzing the possible effect of climate change on the seasonal rainfall regime over Italy. First, rainfall patterns are identified by applying a clustering procedure based on the Self-Organizing Map, by adopting and comparing the results of different gridded datasets describing current climate (1981-2010). Second, for the identified clusters the impact of climate change in the near (2021-2050) and the far future (2051-2080) is assessed by employing an ensemble of bias-adjusted EUROCORDEX climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The results of this study show that, for the considered models’ ensemble, a significant decrease in cumulative rainfall values should be expected in the future, reflecting in a decrease in monthly values across all the seasons.