학술논문
1990—2017年中国5岁以下儿童因气道异物死亡情况分析 / The death trend of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway in China from 1990 to 2017
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Source
中华预防医学杂志 / Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine. 53(9):891-895
Subject
Language
Chinese
ISSN
0253-9624
Abstract
目的 分析1990—2017年中国5岁以下儿童因气道异物死亡情况及变化趋势.方法选用全球疾病负担研究2017中国5岁以下儿童因气道异物死亡的数据进行分析,覆盖地区包括31个省、自治区、直辖市,以及香港和澳门特别行政区,不含中国台湾地区.计算1990与2017年5岁以下儿童的气道异物死亡率、因气道异物死亡占总死亡比例的相对变化程度及95%不确定区间(uncertainty interval,UI).以死亡率一阶滞后进行稳健线性回归,通过supremum Wald检验探索死亡率变化是否在某个时间点前后存在明显的结构变动.结果 2017年,中国5岁以下儿童的气道异物死亡率为8.57/10万(95%UI :7.41/10万~9.57/10万),男童与女童分别为9.05/10万(95%UI :6.82/10万~10.23/10万)和8.02/10万(95%UI:7.02/10万~9.12/10万).Supremum Wald检验结果显示,中国5岁以下儿童因气道异物死亡率在2005年前后存在结构变动(P<0.001),2005年以前变化相对平稳,2005年以后则呈现明显下降趋势.与1990年相比,2017年中国5岁以下儿童、男童和女童的气道异物死亡率分别下降49.32%(95%UI :37.78%~65.41%)、41.22%(95%UI :25.68%~68.26%)和56.91%(95%UI :44.78%~66.70%);因气道异物死亡的人数占相应人群总死亡的比例分别上升153.33%(95%UI :75.99%~204.56%)、171.05%(95%UI :48.75%~239.63%)和137.90%(95%UI :86.62%~198.09%);全死因顺位中均上升了6位,且均从各人群伤害死亡第2位原因变为第1位原因.结论 1990—2017年,中国5岁以下儿童、男童和女童的气道异物死亡率总体呈下降趋势.与1990年相比,2017年中国5岁以下儿童、男童和女童因气道异物死亡的人数占人群总死亡的比例均有较大幅度上升.
Objective To analyze the current situation and the trend of the death due to foreign body in airway in children less than 5 years old in China from 1990 to 2017. Methods Using the mortality data of foreign body in airway in China from 1990 to 2017 from the Global Disease Burden 2017 (data covered 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, as well as Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan Province) to describe the death status of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway in China, and to calculate the relative change and 95% uncertainty interval ( UI ) of mortality rate and proportion of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway between 1990 and 2017. The robust linear regression was performed with the first?order lag of mortality, and the supremum Wald test was used to explore whether the mortality trend had obvious structural changes around a certain time point. Results In 2017, the mortality rate of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway in China was 8.57/100 000 (95%UI : 7.41/100 000-9.57/100 000), and there was no significant difference between boys (9.05/100 000, 95%UI : 6.82/100 000-10.23/100 000) and girls (8.02/100 000, 95%UI : 7.02/100 000-9.12/100 000). The supremum Wald test showed that there was a structural change around the year of 2005 (P<0.001) in terms of the mortality rate of foreign body in the airway among children under 5 years old, which depicted a relatively stable trend before 2005 and a significant downward trend after 2005. Compared with 1990, the mortality rate of foreign body in airway among children, boys and girls under 5 years old in 2017 decreased by 49.32% (95%UI : 37.78% - 65.41%), 41.22% (95%UI :25.68%-68.26%) and 56.91% (95%UI: 44.78%-66.70%), respectively; the mortality proportion of foreign body in airway among increased by 153.33% (95%UI : 75.99% - 204.56%), 171.05% (95%UI :48.75%-239.63%) and 137.90% (95%UI: 86.62%-198.09%), respectively; the rank of foreign body in airway in all disease increased by 6 and became the first leading cause of injury from the second. Conclusion From 1990 to 2017, the mortality rate of foreign body in airway among children, boys and girls under 5 years old in China generally showed a downward trend. Compared with 1990, the mortality proportion of foreign body in airway among these population increased by a relatively large extent in 2017.
Objective To analyze the current situation and the trend of the death due to foreign body in airway in children less than 5 years old in China from 1990 to 2017. Methods Using the mortality data of foreign body in airway in China from 1990 to 2017 from the Global Disease Burden 2017 (data covered 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, as well as Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan Province) to describe the death status of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway in China, and to calculate the relative change and 95% uncertainty interval ( UI ) of mortality rate and proportion of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway between 1990 and 2017. The robust linear regression was performed with the first?order lag of mortality, and the supremum Wald test was used to explore whether the mortality trend had obvious structural changes around a certain time point. Results In 2017, the mortality rate of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway in China was 8.57/100 000 (95%UI : 7.41/100 000-9.57/100 000), and there was no significant difference between boys (9.05/100 000, 95%UI : 6.82/100 000-10.23/100 000) and girls (8.02/100 000, 95%UI : 7.02/100 000-9.12/100 000). The supremum Wald test showed that there was a structural change around the year of 2005 (P<0.001) in terms of the mortality rate of foreign body in the airway among children under 5 years old, which depicted a relatively stable trend before 2005 and a significant downward trend after 2005. Compared with 1990, the mortality rate of foreign body in airway among children, boys and girls under 5 years old in 2017 decreased by 49.32% (95%UI : 37.78% - 65.41%), 41.22% (95%UI :25.68%-68.26%) and 56.91% (95%UI: 44.78%-66.70%), respectively; the mortality proportion of foreign body in airway among increased by 153.33% (95%UI : 75.99% - 204.56%), 171.05% (95%UI :48.75%-239.63%) and 137.90% (95%UI: 86.62%-198.09%), respectively; the rank of foreign body in airway in all disease increased by 6 and became the first leading cause of injury from the second. Conclusion From 1990 to 2017, the mortality rate of foreign body in airway among children, boys and girls under 5 years old in China generally showed a downward trend. Compared with 1990, the mortality proportion of foreign body in airway among these population increased by a relatively large extent in 2017.