학술논문
Incorporating testing volume into estimation of effective reproduction number dynamics
Document Type
Working Paper
Source
Subject
Language
Abstract
Branching process inspired models are widely used to estimate the effective reproduction number -- a useful summary statistic describing an infectious disease outbreak -- using counts of new cases. Case data is a real-time indicator of changes in the reproduction number, but is challenging to work with because cases fluctuate due to factors unrelated to the number of new infections. We develop a new model that incorporates the number of diagnostic tests as a surveillance model covariate. Using simulated data and data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in California, we demonstrate that incorporating tests leads to improved performance over the state-of-the-art.
Comment: 26 pages of main text, plus 17 pages of appendix
Comment: 26 pages of main text, plus 17 pages of appendix