학술논문
Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection
Document Type
Working Paper
Author
Poletti, Piero; Tirani, Marcello; Cereda, Danilo; Trentini, Filippo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Sabatino, Giuliana; Marziano, Valentina; Castrofino, Ambra; Grosso, Francesca; Del Castillo, Gabriele; Piccarreta, Raffaella; Force, ATS Lombardy COVID-19 Task; Andreassi, Aida; Melegaro, Alessia; Gramegna, Maria; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano
Source
JAMA Netw Open. 2021;4(3):e211085
Subject
Language
Abstract
We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 {\deg}C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects. 5,484 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases detected in Lombardy, Italy were analyzed, and positive subjects were ascertained via nasal swabs and serological assays. 73.9% of all infected individuals aged less than 60 years did not develop symptoms (95% confidence interval: 71.8-75.9%). The risk of symptoms increased with age. 6.6% of infected subjects older than 60 years had critical disease, with males at significantly higher risk.
Comment: sample increased: results updated with new records coming from the ongoing serological surveys
Comment: sample increased: results updated with new records coming from the ongoing serological surveys