부산대학교 도서관

Since 2014, Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), with several waves of East-Central-South-African (ECSA) lineage transmission reported across the country. In 2018, Rio de Janeiro state, the third most populous state in Brazil, reported 41% of all chikungunya cases in the country. Here we use evolutionary and epidemiological analysis to estimate the timescale of CHIKV-ECSA-American lineage and its epidemiological patterns in Rio de Janeiro. We show that the CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro derived from two distinct clades introduced from the Northeast region in mid-2015 (clade RJ1, n = 63/67 genomes from Rio de Janeiro) and mid-2017 (clade RJ2, n = 4/67). We detected evidence for positive selection in non-structural proteins linked with viral replication in the RJ1 clade (clade-defining: nsP4-A481D) and the RJ2 clade (nsP1-D531G). Finally, we estimate the CHIKV-ECSA's basic reproduction number (R0) to be between 1.2 to 1.6 and show that its instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) displays a strong seasonal pattern with peaks in transmission coinciding with periods of high Aedes aegypti transmission potential. Our results highlight the need for continued genomic and epidemiological surveillance of CHIKV in Brazil, particularly during periods of high ecological suitability, and show that selective pressures underline the emergence and evolution of the large urban CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro. Author summary: Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral disease that has emerged as a significant public health concern in many regions worldwide. The state of Rio de Janeiro, a key economic and tourism hub in Brazil, has experienced multiple outbreaks of chikungunya in recent years, resulting in significant morbidity and economic burden. However, our understanding of the establishment and epidemiology of chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro remains limited. We conducted an analysis of chikungunya epidemiology in Rio de Janeiro, focusing on the first four years of virus circulation in the state. We estimated the magnitude of chikungunya transmission during this period, providing evidence that the trends of incidence and transmissibility can be influenced by climatic fluctuations, which impact vector abundance. Through analysis of novel genetic data, we inferred the evolutionary history of the virus, providing evidence of molecular adaptation in the lineage circulating in Rio de Janeiro. These findings highlight the need for designing effective vector control strategies to prevent and mitigate chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro and similar settings. Further research is needed to continue monitoring viral epidemiological trends and to better understand the complex interactions between climatic factors, vector dynamics, and viral evolution in shaping the transmission of this emerging disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]