부산대학교 도서관

This paper presents a significant advancement in the understanding of tsunamigenic landslide hazard across the length of the Makassar Strait in Indonesia. We use statistical emulation across the length of the continental slope to conduct a probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazard on a regional scale, across 14 virtual coastal gauges. Focusing on the potential maximum wave amplitudes (distance between the wave crest and the still‐water level) from possible tsunamigenic landslide events, we generate predictions from Gaussian Process emulators fitted to input‐outputs from 50 training scenarios. We show that the most probable maximum wave amplitudes in the majority of gauges are between 1 and 5 m, with the maximum predicted amplitudes reaching values of up to 10 m on the eastern coast, and up to 50 m on the western coast. We also explore the potential use of Gaussian multivariate copulas to sample emulator prediction input values to create a more realistic distribution of volumes along the continental slope. The novel use of statistical emulation across a whole slope enables the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazard due to landslides on a regional scale. This area is of key interest to Indonesia since the new capital will be established in the East Kalimantan region on the western side of the Makassar Strait. Plain Language Summary: This work is the first to use statistical models to conduct a landslide‐generated tsunami hazard assessment for the whole of the Makassar Strait in Indonesia. From 50 simulated landslide‐tsunami scenarios, we fit statistical models (known as emulators) to then predict the likelihood and maximum wave height of potential tsunami waves in 14 different locations along the Makassar continental slope. These predictions show that the most likely wave heights were between 1 and 5 m, with the highest predicted waves reaching up to 10 m on the eastern coast and up to 50 m on the western coast. The results of this study are particularly important because Indonesia has announced the relocation of its new capital city to the western side of the Makassar Strait, within the study area. Key Points: This is the first use of emulation for tsunamigenic landslide hazard assessment worldwide integrating both uncertain location and sizeThis is the first tsunamigenic landslide hazard assessment for the whole Makassar Strait regionProbable tsunami wave amplitudes reach up to 50 m on the West coast and around 14 m where the Indonesian capital will be relocated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]