학술논문
Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Wastewater Surveillance Data, Denmark, October 2021-June 2022.
Document Type
Article
Author
McManus, Oliver; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Nauta, Maarten; Krogsgaard, Lene Wulff; Bahrenscheer, Naja Stolberg; von Kappelgaa, Lene; Christiansen, Tobias; Hansen, Mikkel; Hansen, Nicco Claudio; Kähler, Jonas; Rasmussen, Anders; Richter, Stine Raith; Dam Rasmussen, Lasse; Franck, Kristina Træholt; Ethelberg, Steen
Source
Subject
*SEWAGE
*TIME series analysis
*MEDICAL personnel
*DIAGNOSTIC use of polymerase chain reaction
*COVID-19 pandemic
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Language
ISSN
1080-6040
Abstract
Analysis of wastewater is used in many settings for surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, but it remains unclear how well wastewater testing results reflect incidence. Denmark has had an extensive wastewater analysis system that conducts 3 weekly tests in ≈200 sites and has 85% population coverage; the country also offers free SARSCoV-2 PCR tests to all residents. Using time series analysis for modeling, we found that wastewater data, combined with information on circulating variants and the number of human tests performed, closely fitted the incidence curve of persons testing positive. The results were consistent at a regional level and among a subpopulation of frequently tested healthcare personnel. We used wastewater analysis data to estimate incidence after testing was reduced to a minimum after March 2022. These results imply that data from a large-scale wastewater surveillance system can serve as a good proxy for COVID-19 incidence and for epidemic control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]