부산대학교 도서관

The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework—human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats—interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the "vectorial capacity matrix," a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An R package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems. Author summary: A simple mathematical model of malaria has been the basis for the quantitative study of parasite transmission, but it lacked features to describe spatial dynamics and parasite dispersal. We present a new, modular framework for building highly realistic models of malaria drawing on a century of research and innovation. Using this framework, we develop metrics for parasite dispersal, local reproductive numbers, and malaria connectivity, we re-examine human biting rates and entomological inoculation rates. The framework was built around new, biologically realistic algorithms describing mosquito blood feeding and egg laying in response to resource availability. These algorithms serve as a rigorous yet structurally flexible interface for parasite transmission among human and mosquito host populations; and for the coupled dynamics of volant adult and aquatic immature mosquito populations. The framework supports structured aquatic habitats; patch models for adult mosquitoes; stratified human host populations; and flexible boundary conditions for malaria importation. Using this framework, we can design suites of models with varying levels of realism to study malaria in a place, and we can implement robust simulation-based analytics to support national disease control programmatic activities such as monitoring and evaluation or strategic planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]