부산대학교 도서관

We explore the spatial and temporal spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus under containment measures in three European countries based on fits to data of the early outbreak. Using data from Spain and Italy, we estimate an age dependent infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2, as well as risks of hospitalization and intensive care admission. We use them in a model that simulates the dynamics of the virus using an age structured, spatially detailed agent based approach, that explicitly incorporates governmental interventions and changes in mobility and contact patterns occurred during the COVID-19 outbreak in each country. Our simulations reproduce several of the features of its spatio-temporal spread in the three countries studied. They show that containment measures combined with high density are responsible for the containment of cases within densely populated areas, and that spread to less densely populated areas occurred during the late stages of the first wave. The capability to reproduce observed features of the spatio-temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 makes this model a potential candidate for forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in other settings, and we recommend its application in low and lower-middle income countries which remain understudied. Author summary: First detected in China in December 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus rapidly spread around the world causing a major pandemic and over 300,000 deaths by the end of May 2020. In response to the pandemic, many governments issued measures aimed at containing the spread of the virus and limiting the expected number of deaths. Our goal is to have a model capable of reproducing the observed spatial and temporal spread of the virus, based on the estimate of a limited number of local parameters. We present a detailed model capable of reproducing the spread of the disease in three selected countries. We use a description of the population subdivided in age groups, high resolution population maps, and household structures: we take into account the measures imposed by government and their consequences on the social and mobility patterns of the population. Based on data from Spain and Italy, we estimate hospitalisation and death risks, as well as the infection fatality ratio of the disease. The resulting model has a handful of parameters that need to be estimated and has thus the potential to be used in different contexts, in particular in middle and low-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]