학술논문
Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons.
Document Type
Article
Source
Subject
*OLDER people
*FORECASTING
*MAXIMUM likelihood statistics
*RESPIRATORY syncytial virus
*DISEASES
*LOGISTIC regression analysis
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Language
ISSN
1750-2640
Abstract
We developed and evaluated a model to predict serious outcomes among 243 adults ≥60 years old with medically attended respiratory illness and laboratory‐confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); 47 patients had a serious outcome defined as hospital admission, emergency department (ED) visit, or pneumonia diagnosis. The model used logistic regression with penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The reduced penalized model included age ≥ 75 years, ≥1 ED visit in prior year, crackles/rales, tachypnea, wheezing, new/increased sputum, and new/increased dyspnea. The optimal score cutoff yielded sensitivity and specificity of 66.0% and 81.6%. This prediction model provided moderate utility for identifying older adults with elevated risk of complicated RSV illness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]