부산대학교 도서관

Often chronological uncertainties are ignored in multi-site comparisons, resulting inpotentially wrong assumptions concerning (a)synchrony of events between archives.We explore this problem in a Bayesian framework, constructing millions of plausiblewiggle-match age-models in order to quantify the chronological uncertainties withinand between proxy archives. Using these data we can now calculate the statisticalprobability that events indeed coincided. The method is applied to a high-resolution14C and OSL dated lake core from south-eastern France which largely predates theIntCal04 14C calibration curve. Depending on the applied comparison curve, eventsin this core appear synchronous or asynchronous with events in the NGRIP ice core.