부산대학교 도서관

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), composed of six of the seven countries located on the Arabian Peninsula, i.e., Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain (Yemen is not a member), is a loose confederation whose main goals are to foster regional military security and economic integration. In terms of broad economic features, the GCC countries share similar characteristics. They all have relatively heavy economic dependence on oil and oil-derivative exports, relatively small populations, large expatriate labor forces, and burgeoning nonoil sectors supported by recent massive investments in utilities, roads, ports, hospitals, universities, housing, and commercial buildings. The premise of this paper is that modest increases in oil prices will support a steady expansion of GCC oil production. In fact, since 1986 (with the exception of the sharp runup and rundown in oil prices during the 1990-1991 Gulf crisis), oil prices have increased at a real rate of about 2 percent per year. In this environment, total GDP can grow at real rates of between 4 and 7 percent annually as GCC oil export volumes expand and nonoil sectors grow at steady rates comparable to the trend rates for the 1970s. By the end of the 1990s, total real GDP for the GCC will be near levels achieved in the early 1980s before high oil prices choked off oil exports. Unlike that earlier period, however, the growth of the 1990s will be sustainable over the longer term.