부산대학교 도서관

Robust reliability Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) turns out to be a crucial step for an efficient energy management system in a modern power grid, especially under renewable energy employment. The integration of all such components in a GEP model makes it a large-scale, nonlinear, and mixed-variable mathematical modeling problem. In this paper, the presence of wind energy uncertainty is analyzed. Both long and short-term uncertainties are incorporated into the proposed GEP model. The first step concerns the impact of long-term wind uncertainties through the annual variations of the capacity credit of two real sites in Egypt at Zafaranh and Shark El-ouinate. The second step deals with the short-term uncertainties of each wind site. The wind speed uncertainty of each wind site is modeled by probability distribution function. Then, wind power is estimated from the wind power curve for each wind site and Monte-Carlo Simulation is performed. Fast Gas Turbine and/or Pump Hydro Storage are incorporated to cope with short-term uncertainties. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for 3, 6, and 12 stages as short and long planning horizons to minimize the total costs with wind energy penetration and emission reduction over planning horizons. Also, a novel Honey Badger Algorithm (HBA) with model modifications such as Virtual Mapping Procedure, Penalty Factor Approach, and the Modified of Intelligent Initial Population Generation is utilized for solving the proposed GEP problem. The obtained results are compared with other algorithms to ensure the superior performance of the proposed HBA. According to the results of the applicable test systems, the proposed HBA performs better than the others, with percentage reductions over CSA, AO, BES, and PSO ranging up to 4.2, 2.72, 2.7, and 3.4%, respectively.