부산대학교 도서관

Objective: The objective of this study was to develop and validate a risk scale (MARIACHI) for patients classified as non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS) in a prehospital setting with the ability to identify patients at an increased risk of mortality at an early stage.Methods: A retrospective observational study conducted in Catalonia over two periods: 2015–2017 (development and internal validation cohort) and Aug 2018–Jan 2019 (external validation cohort). We included patients classified as prehospital NSTEACS, assisted by an advanced life support unit and requiring hospital admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Cohorts were compared using logistic regression and a predictive model was created using bootstrapping techniques.Results: The development and internal validation cohort included 519 patients. The model is composed of five variables associated with hospital mortality: age, systolic blood pressure, heart rate > 95 bpm, Killip-Kimball III–IV and ST depression ≥ 0.5 mm. The model showed good overall performance (Brier = 0.043) and consistency in discrimination (AUC 0.88, 95% CI 0.83–0.92) and calibration (slope = 0.91; 95% CI 0.89–0.93). We included 1316 patients for the external validation sample. There was no difference in discrimination (AUC 0.83, 95% CI 0.78–0.87; DeLong Test p = 0.071), but there was in calibration (p < 0.001), so it was recalibrated. The finally model obtained was stratified and scored into three groups according to the predicted risk of patient in-hospital mortality: low risk: < 1% (-8 to 0 points), moderate risk: 1–5% (+ 1 to + 5 points) and high risk: > 5% (6–12 points).Conclusion: The MARIACHI scale showed correct discrimination and calibration to predict high-risk NSTEACS. Identification of high-risk patients may help with treatment and low referral decisions at the prehospital level.