부산대학교 도서관

In these studies, we show that the seismic risk of large cities in developing countries is most often due to the high vulnerability of apartment buildings. To reduce the seismic risk in the territory of such cities, it is important to study the dynamics of its change over time, since the risk is not formed immediately and for various reasons. Establishing these causes is important for both risk prevention and reduction. As an object of study, we chose the capital of Armenia, the city of Yerevan, whose high seismic risk was formed mainly due to the construction of a large number of seismically vulnerable apartment buildings and the associated rapid mechanical population growth. The seismic risk of the territory of Yerevan has been repeatedly estimated, while the dynamics of risk growth over time has not been studied. This paper is aimed at studying the dynamics of the growth of seismic risk in the territory of Yerevan for 1900–2019, depending on the seismic hazard level, the number of vulnerable apartment buildings, and the number of residents in these buildings. To estimate the risk, a special methodology based on the lessons of the devastating Spitak earthquake 1988 was used. It was confirmed that a high level of seismic risk was formed mainly from 1957 to 1989 due to an underestimation of the seismic hazard, the construction of a large number of apartment buildings with high and medium seismic vulnerability, rapid growth, and an uneven population distribution.