학술논문

Temporal clustering of Kawasaki disease cases around the world.
Document Type
article
Source
Scientific reports. 11(1)
Subject
Kawasaki Disease Climate Study Group
Humans
Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome
Incidence
Cluster Analysis
Linear Models
Monte Carlo Method
Time Factors
Child
Hospitals
United States
Italy
New Zealand
Republic of Korea
Global Health
Language
Abstract
In a single-site study (San Diego, CA, USA), we previously showed that Kawasaki Disease (KD) cases cluster temporally in bursts of approximately 7 days. These clusters occurred more often than would be expected at random even after accounting for long-term trends and seasonality. This finding raised the question of whether other locations around the world experience similar temporal clusters of KD that might offer clues to disease etiology. Here we combine data from San Diego and nine additional sites around the world with hospitals that care for large numbers of KD patients, as well as two multi-hospital catchment regions. We found that across these sites, KD cases clustered at short time scales and there were anomalously long quiet periods with no cases. Both of these phenomena occurred more often than would be expected given local trends and seasonality. Additionally, we found unusually frequent temporal overlaps of KD clusters and quiet periods between pairs of sites. These findings suggest that regional and planetary range environmental influences create periods of higher or lower exposure to KD triggers that may offer clues to the etiology of KD.