부산대학교 도서관

Defined as ratio of export prices to import prices, net barter terms of trade(hereinafter referred to as terms of trade; TOT) is one of the most important relative prices in international trade. As a critical indicator of trade benefits for a nation, its impact on macroeconomics has been received great attention from both scholars and policy makers. Especially since the Prebisch-Singer thesis, TOT has became a centre concept for developing countries. In recent years from the studies by scholars, the situations of TOT in developing countries are not optimistic. Worsening TOT means the increasing trade losses, the economic growth will face growing pressure, and the domestic price will also come under attack. With Asian developing countries’ further opening to the outside world and greater participation in the global economy, it has become imperative for us to make clear that the influence of the openness and consider how to rationally adjust trade policies and macroeconomic policies in order to achieve price stability and facilitate more long-term rapid economic development. TOT is undoubtedly an important reference. In recent years, although there are many researches on TOT, there are still some problems: 1) there is no clear explanation about dynamic effects of TOT on China’s Gross Domestic Production(GDP) and Consumer Price Index(CPI), especially the impact of deterioration of it; 2) as for economic influence of TOT, studies among the Asian developing countries are insufficient. Based on above, I believe that it is necessary and meaningful to have a further study about the relationship between TOT and the macroeconomic index such as GDP and CPI among Asian developing countries. This dissertation carries out empirical analysis by using several kinds of econometric methods and time series methods including H-P filter method, MSD(4) method, GARCH(1,1) model, unit root test, VAR model, impulse response function, variance decomposition analysis, cointegration test and VEC model. It’s main conclusions are as follows: In the first part of empirical analysis, firstly, studies on short-term volatility of China’s TOT show that, the volatility track goes down gently, meaning TOT’s volatility is decreasing slowly. While study on long-term trend indicates that, in China, TOT presents a gradually deteriorated feature. Secondly, according to antecedent researches, floating exchange rate regime is better for macroeconomic stability under external shocks. July 2005 is the cut-off point for RMB exchange rate regime. Bases on VAR model this paper analyzes the impact of TOT on macroeconomic volatility before and after exchange rate regime reform. Before second quarter 2005, impulse response analysis shows that the responses of 1% shock of TOT result in 0.147%, 0.472% and 0.061% decrease in real effective exchange rate, real GDP, and consumer price index, respectively. After exchange rate regime reform the responses have changed into 0.181% increases in real effective exchange rate, and 0.068%, 0.082% decrease in real GDP and consumer price index, respectively. The results of variance decomposition indicate that after exchange rate regime reform the influence of TOT to real GDP declined sharply, but as to consumer price index the influence is bigger than before. The change of TOT leads to higher price volatility after the exchange rate regime reform. According to the second part of empirical analysis about the impacts of TOT on seven Asian developing countries’ real GDP per capita and CPI we can draw some conclusions. First, China, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines and Turkey are faced with the problem of deterioration of TOT in different degrees. But in regard to India and Indonesia the pictures are reversed. Second, except Turkey, for China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, the deterioration of TOT can promote economic growth. This conclusion is in accord with the previous results presented by 吴浜源 & 王亮(2014). Even through all of them are Asian developing countries, they may demonstrate great differences in some aspects, such as the import and export structure, government efficiency, industrial structure, and so forth. So it is possible that TOT have opposite effect on GDP among those countries. In the case of the improvement of TOT, the domestic price tends to decrease in Philippines and Turkey. In contrast, CPI in countries such as China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan rises because of the improvement of TOT. As an exogenous shock, TOT has greater effect on China’s CPI, when compared with the domestic factor, real GDP per capita. And this analysis result is the same as the previous VAR model’s. What’s more, CPI in Malaysia and Philippines also gains greatly influence from TOT but not real GDP per capita. Moreover, if compared TOT’s influence on real GDP per capita and CPI, we can recognize that CPI suffers a bigger influence from TOT among the countries except China and Malaysia. If we observe the analysis results which are based on the VEC model, we can conclude when the TOT of China, Indonesia, Pakistan and Philippines is not so appropriate from the long-run equilibrium, the economy can also be back to the equilibrium by the changing of real GDP per capita. On the contrary, the situation of Turkey is far from the equilibrium level. If viewing this point from the long-term, to exceed the equilibrium level can promote the economic growth in Turkey. Owing to the influence of long-term economic balance which is not so outstanding, India and Malaysia should pay much more attention to the stability of economic growth when compared with others. As for the situation of CPI in India and Pakistan, when TOT is impacted, the economy can still turn back to the equilibrium by error correction process. In contrast, in Malaysia and Indonesia, its economic situation go in a contrary direction. And the adjustment coefficient of China, Philippines and Turkey is not so significant in statistics. Therefore, Chinese government should fully consider the cost and tolerance of the economy when chooses the speed of exchange rate regime reform. At the same time, excessive deterioration in TOT should be avoided by adopting related countermeasures. On the other hand, with more and more dependence on foreign trade, and with international trade competition becoming more and more drastic, Asian developing countries should perfect the market economic system, speed up scientific & technological progress and independent innovation, improve the government’s macroeconomic management capacity, it is the only way to achieve the goal of catching up, and to achieve long-term goal of economic development and price stability as soon as possible.