학술논문
한국의 주택용 도시가스의 공급신뢰도 개선의 경제적가치 추정: 선택실험법 적용을 중심으로 / A Valuation of Improvement in the Korean Natural Gas Supply for Residential Consumers: Results of a Choice Experiment Study
Document Type
Dissertation/ Thesis
Author
Source
Subject
Language
Korean
Abstract
우리나라 도시가스 판매량 중 주택용의 비중은 40%를 초과하며, 주택용 내 취사용과 난방용으로 구분 시, 80% 이상이 난방용으로 공급되고 있어, 주택용 도시가스의 공급신뢰가 훼손될 경우 상당한 경제적 손실을 초래할 수 있다. 따라서, 우리나라 정부는 도시가스 공급계획 수립 시, 주택용 도시가스 공급신뢰도 개선의 가치에 대해 정보를 요구하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 선택실험법을 적용하여 우리나라에서의 주택용 도시가스 공급신뢰도 개선이 가치를 추정하는 것을 목표로 한다. 주택용 도시가스 공급신뢰도에 대한 네 가지 속성은 1) 도시가스공급 중단 지속시간, 2) 공급중단 계절, 3) 공급중단 발생시간 및 4) 일주일 중 공급중단 발생요일 이며, 각 속성 및 속성 수준 결정을 위해 전국 1,000가구를 대상으로 일대일 면접 조사를 시행하여 자료를 수집하였으며, 다항로짓모형을 적용하여 자료를 분석하였다. MNL모형을 이용하여 추정한 효용함수의 계수는 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났으며, 네 가지 속성별 추정결과, 주택용 도시가스 공급중단 지속시간을 줄이고, 동절기 및 일과외에 도시가스 공급중단이 발생 방지를 하는 것이 유용하다는 결과가 도출되었다. 보다 구체적으로 설명하면, 도시가스 공급중단 지속시간이 1분 감소를 위해 0.1%, 동절기 외 기간보다 동절기의 공급중단을 피하기 위해 5.16%, 일과중보다 일과외에 공급중단을 막기 위해 2.94%를 도시가스 요금에 추가적으로 지불할 의사가 있는 것으로 추정되었다.
A supply reliability of residential natural gas (NG) may cause considerable economic damage. Thus, the South Korean government requires information about the value of improved residential NG supply reliability for planning NG supply. This article aims to measure the value using a specific case of South Korean residential consumers. The choice experiment (CE) approach was adopted for this purpose. The selected four attributes are the duration of interruption, the season of interruption, the time of day, and the day of the week. The value trade-off works among the four attributes and price attribute were sought and successfully completed in a nationwide CE survey of 1,000 households. The respondents revealed statistically significant willingness to pay for a decrease in the duration of interruption, avoiding interruption during winter rather than not winter, and preventing interruption during off-daytime (6 p.m. to 9 a.m.) rather than daytime (9 a.m. to 6 p.m.). For example, they accepted a 0.10% increase in the residential NG bill for a one-minute reduction in interruption during NG supply interruption, a 5.16% increase in residential NG bill for avoiding interruption during winter rather than not winter, and a 2.94% increase in residential NG bill for preventing interruption during off-daytime rather than daytime. However, they placed no importance on the day of the week. These results can be useful for policy-making and decision-making to improve residential NG supply reliability.
A supply reliability of residential natural gas (NG) may cause considerable economic damage. Thus, the South Korean government requires information about the value of improved residential NG supply reliability for planning NG supply. This article aims to measure the value using a specific case of South Korean residential consumers. The choice experiment (CE) approach was adopted for this purpose. The selected four attributes are the duration of interruption, the season of interruption, the time of day, and the day of the week. The value trade-off works among the four attributes and price attribute were sought and successfully completed in a nationwide CE survey of 1,000 households. The respondents revealed statistically significant willingness to pay for a decrease in the duration of interruption, avoiding interruption during winter rather than not winter, and preventing interruption during off-daytime (6 p.m. to 9 a.m.) rather than daytime (9 a.m. to 6 p.m.). For example, they accepted a 0.10% increase in the residential NG bill for a one-minute reduction in interruption during NG supply interruption, a 5.16% increase in residential NG bill for avoiding interruption during winter rather than not winter, and a 2.94% increase in residential NG bill for preventing interruption during off-daytime rather than daytime. However, they placed no importance on the day of the week. These results can be useful for policy-making and decision-making to improve residential NG supply reliability.