학술논문
천연가스 지역시장의 통합에 관한 연구 : 스윙공급자의 역할을 중심으로 / An Empirical Study on the international natural gas market integration : Empirical Evidence from the Role of Swing Supplier
Document Type
Dissertation/ Thesis
Author
Source
Subject
Language
Korean
Abstract
본 연구는 세계 천연가스 지역시장의 통합에 대해 3대 천연가스 시장가격 자료를 기초로 오차수정모형 및 그랜저 인과관계 검정기법을 사용하여 분석하였다. 덧붙여서 스윙공급자의 천연가스 시장 내 역할 수준에 따라 기간을 총 4단계로 구분하고 단계별로 스윙공급자가 시장통합에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 북미시장은 어느 시장과도 통합되지 않았고, 유럽과 동북아시아 시장은 서로 통합되었다고 할 수 있는데, 스윙공급자가 시장 내 역할과 영향력을 확대할수록 시장통합이 커지고 가속화 되었다. 이는 스윙공급자의 등장과 영향력 확대가 유럽과 동북아시아 시장통합에 영향을 주었음을 시사한다. 둘째 유럽과 동북아시아 시장은 양방향 그랜저 인과관계가 나타났는데, 스윙공급자가 시장영향력을 공고히 하고, 현물거래를 늘려가는 단계에서유럽 가스가격이 동북아시아를 선도하는 인과관계의 역전이 발생하였다. 이것은 동북아시아 가격이 유럽시장가격을 후행 추종하는 구도가 수립된 것으로, 스윙공급자는 동북아시아 시장가격을 사전에 예측 할 수 있어 동북아시장에서 안정적인 이익추구가 가능해졌음을 의미한다. 분석결과를 종합하면 스윙공급자는 유럽과 동북아시아 시장통합을 주도해 오면서, 자신에게 유리한 시장구조 구축을 통해 이익극대화를 추구해 온 것으로 보인다
In this study, the analysis on the integration of the World’s regional natural gas market has been conducted based on the market prices data for the three main types of natural gas by applying the Error Correction model and the Granger Casuality Test. In addition, the period of time has been classified into 4 phases in accordance with the role level of Swing Supplier within the natural gas market and the effect of Swing Supplier in the integration of market has been fully investigated. The result of this analysis is as follows. First, it can be said that the North American market has yet been integrated with other markets while, European market and Northeast Asian market are integrated with one another. In this case, the increase in the role and influence of Swing Supplier within the market has led to growth and acceleration of market integration. This suggests the fact that the advent of Swing Supplier and increase of its influence had an influence on the market integration of European and Northeast Asian market. Second, European and Northeast Asian market have showed bi-directional Granger causal relationship and in the stage of strengthening of market forces and increase of spot trading by Swing Supplier, the turnaround in the causal relationship that the Northeast Asian gas price being led by the European gas price, has occurred. It is the establishment of the trend that the Northeast Asian price follows European market price subsequently. This implies that the Swing Supplier may pursue stable profit as prior estimation of Northeast Asian market price is possible. The integrated result of analysis suggest that the Swing Supplier has been seeking profit maximization through establishing the favorable market structure by leading the market integration of Europe and Northeast Asia.
In this study, the analysis on the integration of the World’s regional natural gas market has been conducted based on the market prices data for the three main types of natural gas by applying the Error Correction model and the Granger Casuality Test. In addition, the period of time has been classified into 4 phases in accordance with the role level of Swing Supplier within the natural gas market and the effect of Swing Supplier in the integration of market has been fully investigated. The result of this analysis is as follows. First, it can be said that the North American market has yet been integrated with other markets while, European market and Northeast Asian market are integrated with one another. In this case, the increase in the role and influence of Swing Supplier within the market has led to growth and acceleration of market integration. This suggests the fact that the advent of Swing Supplier and increase of its influence had an influence on the market integration of European and Northeast Asian market. Second, European and Northeast Asian market have showed bi-directional Granger causal relationship and in the stage of strengthening of market forces and increase of spot trading by Swing Supplier, the turnaround in the causal relationship that the Northeast Asian gas price being led by the European gas price, has occurred. It is the establishment of the trend that the Northeast Asian price follows European market price subsequently. This implies that the Swing Supplier may pursue stable profit as prior estimation of Northeast Asian market price is possible. The integrated result of analysis suggest that the Swing Supplier has been seeking profit maximization through establishing the favorable market structure by leading the market integration of Europe and Northeast Asia.