부산대학교 도서관

Global warming has led to a high incidence of extreme hydrometeorological events. Predicting the spatial and temporal response of water resources to future climate change is necessary for the construction of regional water facilities. In this study, Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were combined with the Delta downscaling method in the Dongyu River Basin (DRB), China. Three different GCMs under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 scenarios were considered. Relative to the baseline (2008-2018), streamflow under two scenarios was assessed from 2025 to 2064. The results show that the mean annual precipitation would rise by 12.3% and 12.8% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios, respectively. The mean monthly maximum temperature and minimum temperature would increase in summer but decrease in winter under two scenarios. Future climate change was estimated to increase the mean annual streamflow by 9.00% under SSP2-4.5 scenario and by 6.92% under SSP3-7.0 scenario. The wet season was forecast to arrive earlier and the frequency of extreme events would likely increase in the future. A high positive correlation was projected between the annual precipitation and the annual streamflow, with an average correlation coefficient of 0.76 (p < 0.05). The dominant climate variables would be different on the monthly scale. Streamflow in the dry season would be more susceptible to temperature changes. The findings of this study show how climate change affects streamflow in the DRB and give adaptive management a scientific foundation.