부산대학교 도서관

We propose new method to predict the flood risk for typhoon-related rainfall using ensemble forecast data and conceptional flood scale estimation model. 51 Extracted tracks from the pressure data were classified to three scenarios using cluster analysis in consideration of the direction as well as the speed of typhoon. To improve the agreement with observed data, we corrected the forecast precipitation in consideration of the frequency distribution. Flood risk was approximately evaluated by the average precipitation intensity within the flood concentration time. We applied this method to Kanto-Tohoku heavy rainfall by typhoon No. 18 in 2015. The result shows that one of scenarios is good agreement with the observed rainfall distribution and flood risk in Kinugawa basin. Furthermore, it was found that the flood risk in Tamagawa basin would be serious class in the case that typhoon track slightly shifted to the west.