부산대학교 도서관

In this study, a method for predicting the drift of vessels during typhoons is developed, and the accuracy of predicting the drift of vessels is investigated by calculating the drift using various weather prediction models. The prediction method is based on the domain meteorological model WRF, the Japan Meteorological Agency's GSM (Japan region), and the forecast data of MSM. The results of the prediction calculations showed that, on average, the error of the predicted drifting position from the measured value was about 1 to 4 km, but in the case of a vessel at anchor, the prediction accuracy of the drifting wake and the drifting point was higher in the case with a higher prediction accuracy of the wind field. However, in order to improve the accuracy of predicting the anchorage of a vessel during a typhoon, it is necessary to take into account various uncertainty factors, such as the anchor chain, waves, and the use of the main engine, in order to improve the calculation accuracy, such as the conditions for the start of drifting.