학술논문

Examining Factors Explaining Intra- and Inter-offender Variation in Journey-to-crime Distance / 犯行行程距離の個人内変動と個人間変動を説明する要因の検討
Document Type
Journal Article
Source
行動計量学 / Kodo Keiryogaku (The Japanese Journal of Behaviormetrics). 2021, 48(1):1
Subject
Center of Minimum Distance (CMD)
Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM)
Journey-to-crime Distance (JtcD)
sexual crime
一般化線形混合モデル(GLMM)
性犯罪
最小距離中心(CMD)
犯行行程距離(JtcD)
Language
Japanese
ISSN
0385-5481
1880-4705
Abstract
Many studies have indicated that most crimes occur close to an offender's home. However, recent studies demonstrated that substantial Journey-to-crime Distance (JtcD) variation was observed at the inter-offender level. This study aimed to examine whether the relationship between a central point calculated from a distribution of crime sites (Center of Minimum Distance: CMD) and each crime site and the crime scene characteristics (students vs. other victims and indoor vs. outdoor settings) could explain the variation in JtcD at the inter- and intra-offender level. The data comprised 222 serial sexual offenders who committed seven or more offenses from 2003 to 2015 in Japan. The analyses of generalized linear mixed modeling showed that the CMD model constructed from the relationship between CMD and each crime site accounted for 47.9% of intra-offender variance in JtcD compared to the random intercept model. Additionally, when crime scene characteristics are included in the CMD model, the model accounted for 35.6% inter-offender variance in JtcD compared to the random intercept model. These findings indicated that the substantial variation in JtcD was explained by the relationship between CMD and each crime site and the crime scene characteristics, but the extent of this influence varied between offenders.