학술논문
Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe
Document Type
research-article
Author
Schröter, Dagmar; Cramer, Wolfgang; Leemans, Rik; Prentice, I. Colin; Araújo, Miguel B.; Arnell, Nigel W.; Bondeau, Alberte; Bugmann, Harald; Carter, Timothy R.; Gracia, Carlos A.; de la Vega-Leinert, Anne C.; Erhard, Markus; Ewert, Frank; Glendining, Margaret; House, Joanna I.; Kankaanpää, Susanna; Lavorel, Sandra; Lindner, Marcus; Metzger, Marc J.; Meyer, Jeannette; Mitchell, Timothy D.; Reginster, Isabelle; Rounsevell, Mark; Sabaté, Santi; Sitch, Stephen; Smith, Ben; Smith, Jo; Smith, Pete; Sykes, Martin T.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Thuiller, Wilfried; Tuck, Gill; Zaehle, Sönke; Zierl, Bärbel
Source
Science, 2005 Nov . 310(5752), 1333-1337.
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
00368075
10959203
10959203
Abstract
Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.