학술논문

Field experiments of success-breeds-success dynamics
Document Type
research-article
Source
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014 May . 111(19), 6934-6939.
Subject
Funding
Donations
Signatures
Websites
Wikipedia
Data collection
Statistical results
Crowdfunding
Arithmetic mean
Petitioners
Language
English
ISSN
00278424
10916490
Abstract
Seemingly similar individuals often experience drastically different success trajectories, with some repeatedly failing and others consistently succeeding. One explanation is preexisting variability along unobserved fitness dimensions that is revealed gradually through differential achievement. Alternatively, positive feedback operating on arbitrary initial advantages may increasingly set apart winners from losers, producing runaway inequality. To identify social feedback in human reward systems, we conducted randomized experiments by intervening in live social environments across the domains of funding, status, endorsement, and reputation. In each system we consistently found that early success bestowed upon arbitrarily selected recipients produced significant improvements in subsequent rates of success compared with the control group of nonrecipients. However, success exhibited decreasing marginal returns, with larger initial advantages failing to produce much further differentiation. These findings suggest a lesser degree of vulnerability of reward systems to incidental or fabricated advantages and a more modest role for cumulative advantage in the explanation of social inequality than previously thought.