부산대학교 도서관

Magnitude (M)-log area (A) relations have been the focus of considerable research in the past two decades because of their importance in estimating moment magnitude M for earthquake probability calculations and seismic-hazard analysis. For M7) that dominate the moment balancing in continental crust, the L-model scaling employed by Hanks and Bakun (2002, 2008) involves fault slip growing with fault length L when L>W∼15 km or so, requiring that static stress drops increase with increasing fault slip. Constant stress-drop representations of the same larger-earthquake data, such as Shaw (2009, 2013), require slip at depths significantly greater than W∼15 km. Available evidence supports neither of these requirements leaving us perplexed as to how large-earthquake ruptures initiate and propagate in continental crust. Deep slip M-logA models that involve an unknown amount of seismic moment/earthquake slip at unknown depths>W are not appropriate for use in earthquake probability studies governed by shallow-slip (depths≤W) seismic moment/earthquake slip balancing, such as those in California during the twenty-first century.