부산대학교 도서관

Keywords: Baltic Sea; Confidence; Decision support tools; Uncertainty Abstract Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000, Roskilde, Denmark (2) Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Marine Research Centre, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790, Helsinki, Finland (a) flbe@bios.au.dk Article History: Registration Date: 08/13/2020 Received Date: 02/01/2020 Accepted Date: 08/13/2020 Online Date: 09/03/2020 Byline: