부산대학교 도서관

Byline: Somphot Duangchantrasiri, Mayuree Umponjan, Saksit Simcharoen, Anak Pattanavibool, Soontorn Chaiwattana, Sompoch Maneerat, N. Samba Kumar, Devcharan Jathanna, Arjun Srivathsa, K. Ullas Karanth Keywords: abundance estimation; camera traps; carnivores; overhunting; patrolling; population dynamics; spatial capture-recapture models; carnivoros; dinamicas poblacionales; estimacion de la abundancia; exceso de caza; modelos espaciales de captura-recaptura; patrullaje; trampas camara Abstract Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture-recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624-1026 km.sub.2 with 137-200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood-based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km.sub.2, abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture-recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82-90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low-density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade. CAPTION(S): Model-selection statistics for the open-model Cormack-Jolly-Seber analyses used to estimate survival and detection probability (Appendix S1), annual estimates of capture probabilities, abundance, trap array, buffer width, sampled area, and tiger densities derived from closed-model conventional capture-recapture analyses (Appendix S2), model-selection statistics from Pradel's ([Pradel R., 1996]) temporal symmetry analyses in HKK (Appendix S3), and spatial intensity of patrols in HKK from 2006 to 2012 (Appendix S4) are available as part of the on-line article. The authors are solely responsible for the content and functionality of these materials. Queries (other than absence of the material) should be directed to the corresponding author.