학술논문
Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
CORONAVIRUS
CORONAVIRUS
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Candido, Darlan S.; Clara, Ingra M.; de Jesus, Jaqueline G.; Souza, William M.; Moreira, Filipe R.R.; Dellicour, Simon; Mellan, Thomas A.; du Plessis, Louis; Pereira, Rafael H.M.; Sales, Flavia C.S.; Manuli, Erika R.; Theze, Julien; Almeida, Luiz; Menezes, Mariane T.; Voloch, Carolina M.; Fumagalli, Marcilio J.; Colctti, Thais M.; da Silva, Camila A.M.; Ramundo, Mariana S.; Amorim, Mariene R.; Hoeltgebaum, Henrique H.; Mishra, Swapnil; Gill, Mandev S.; Carvalho, Luiz M.; Buss, Lewis F.; Prete, Carlos A., Jr.; Ashworth, Jordan; Nakaya, Helder I.; Peixoto, Pedro S.; Brady, Oliver J.; Nicholls, Samuel M.; Tanuri, Amilcar; Rossi, Atila D.; Braga, Carlos K.V.; Gerber, Alexandra L.; de C. Guimaraes, Ana Paula; Gaburo, Nelson, Jr.; Alencar, Cecila Salete; Ferreira, Alessandro C.S.; Lima, Cristiano X.; Levi, Jose Eduardo; Granato, Celso; Ferreira, Giulia M.; Jr., Ronaldo S. Francisco; Granja, Fabiana; Garcia, Marcia T.; Moretti, Maria Luiza; Perroud, Mauricio W., Jr.; Castifteiras, Terezinha M.P.P.; Lazari, Carolina S.; Hill, Sarah C.; de Souza Santos, Andreza Aruska; Simeoni, Camila L; Forato, Julia; Sposito, Andrei C.; Schreiber, Angelica Z.; Santos, Magnun N.N.; de Sa, Camila Zolini; Souza, Renan P.; Resende-Moreira, Luciana C.; Teixeira, Mauro M.; Hubner, Josy; Leme, Patricia A.F.; Moreira, Rennan G.; Nogueira, Mauricio L.; Ferguson, Neil M.; Costa, Silvia F.; Proenca-Modena, Jose Luiz; Vasconcelos, Ana Tereza R.; Bhatt, Samir; Lemey, Philippe; Wu, Chieh-Hsi; Rambaut, Andrew; Loman, Nick J.; Aguiar, Renato S.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Sabino, Ester C.; Faria, Nuno Rodrigues
Source
Science. Sept 2020, Vol. 369 Issue 6508, p1255, 6 p.
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
0036-8075
Abstract
Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.