학술논문
COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya
CORONAVIRUS
CORONAVIRUS
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Brand, Samuel P. C.; Ojal, John; Aziza, Rabia; Were, Vincent; Okiro, Emelda A.; Kombe, Ivy K.; Mburu, Caroline; Ogero, Morris; Agweyu, Ambrose; Warimwe, George M.; Nyagwange, James; Karanja, Henry; Gitonga, John N.; Mugo, Daisy; Uyoga, Sophie; Adetifa, Ifedayo M. O.; Scott, J. Anthony G.; Otieno, Edward; Murunga, Nickson; Otiende, Mark; Ochola-Oyier, Lynette I.; Agoti, Charles N.; Githinji, George; Kasera, Kadondi; Amoth, Patrick; Mwangangi, Mercy; Aman, Rashid; Ng'ang'a, Wangari; Tsofa, Benjamin; Bejon, Philip; Keeling, Matt. J.; Notes, D. James; Barasa, Edwine
Source
Science. November 19, 2021, Vol. 374 Issue 6570, p989, 6 p.
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
0036-8075
Abstract
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban-rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.