학술논문
The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya
Document Type
Report
Author
Mburu, C. N.; Ojal, J.; Chebet, R.; Akech, D.; Karia, B.; Tuju, J.; Sigilai, A.; Abbas, K.; Jit, M.; Funk, S.; Smits, G.; van Gageldonk, P. G. M.; van der Klis, F. R. M.; Tabu, C.; Nokes, D. J.; Munday, James D.; Pearson, Carl A. B.; Procter, Simon R.; Brady, Oliver; Simons, David; Lowe, Rachel; Edmunds, W. John; Sherratt, Katharine; Barnard, Rosanna C.; Rosello, Alicia; Kucharski, Adam J.; Sun, Fiona Yueqian; Bosse, Nikos I.; Klepac, Petra; Liu, Yang; Prem, Kiesha; Knight, Gwenan M.; Endo, Akira; Abbott, Sam; Nightingale, Emily S.; Jombart, Thibaut; Emery, Jon C.; Gore-Langton, Georgia R.; Hellewell, Joel; Rudge, James W.; Gibbs, Hamish P.; O'Reilly, Kathleen; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Chan, Yung-Wai Desmond; Tully, Damien C.; Foss, Anna M.; Jarvis, Christopher I.; Atkins, Katherine E.; Clifford, Samuel; Quaife, Matthew; Quilty, Billy J.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Eggo, Rosalind M.; Medley, Graham; Meakin, Sophie R.; Russell, Timothy W.; Davies, Nicholas G.; Diamond, Charlie; Deol, Arminder K.; Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian; Hué, Stéphane; Auzenbergs, Megan; Leclerc, Quentin J.; Gimma, Amy
Source
BMC Medicine. February 3, 2021, Vol. 19 Issue 1
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
1741-7015
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. Methods Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. Results In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8-54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19-54), 46% (30-59), and 54% (43-64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25-56), 54% (43-63), and 67% (59-72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with [greater than or equai to] 95% coverage in under-fives. Conclusion While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya. Keywords: Measles, Vaccination coverage, Outbreak, COVID-19, Supplementary immunisation activities
Author(s): C. N. Mburu[sup.1,2] , J. Ojal[sup.1,2] , R. Chebet[sup.1] , D. Akech[sup.1] , B. Karia[sup.1] , J. Tuju[sup.1] , A. Sigilai[sup.1] , K. Abbas[sup.2] , M. Jit[sup.2] , S. [...]
Author(s): C. N. Mburu[sup.1,2] , J. Ojal[sup.1,2] , R. Chebet[sup.1] , D. Akech[sup.1] , B. Karia[sup.1] , J. Tuju[sup.1] , A. Sigilai[sup.1] , K. Abbas[sup.2] , M. Jit[sup.2] , S. [...]