학술논문
Short-term exposure to PM2.5 and 1.5 million deaths: a time-stratified case-crossover analysis in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area
Document Type
Report
Author
Source
Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source. October 17, 2023, Vol. 22 Issue 1
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
1476-069X
Abstract
Author(s): Iván Gutiérrez-Avila[sup.1] , Horacio Riojas-Rodríguez[sup.2] , Elena Colicino[sup.1] , Johnathan Rush[sup.1] , Marcela Tamayo-Ortiz[sup.3] , Víctor Hugo Borja-Aburto[sup.4] and Allan C. Just[sup.1,5] Introduction Human exposure to fine particulate matter [...]
Background Satellite-based PM.sub.2.5 predictions are being used to advance exposure science and air-pollution epidemiology in developed countries; including emerging evidence about the impacts of PM.sub.2.5 on acute health outcomes beyond the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, and the potential modifying effects from individual-level factors in these associations. Research on these topics is lacking in low and middle income countries. We aimed to explore the association between short-term exposure to PM.sub.2.5 with broad-category and cause-specific mortality outcomes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), and potential effect modification by age, sex, and SES characteristics in such associations. Methods We used a time-stratified case-crossover study design with 1,479,950 non-accidental deaths from the MCMA for the period of 2004-2019. Daily 1 x 1 km PM.sub.2.5 (median = 23.4 [mu]g/m.sup.3; IQR = 13.6 [mu]g/m.sup.3) estimates from our satellite-based regional model were employed for exposure assessment at the sub-municipality level. Associations between PM.sub.2.5 with broad-category (organ-system) and cause-specific mortality outcomes were estimated with distributed lag conditional logistic models. We also fit models stratifying by potential individual-level effect modifiers including; age, sex, and individual SES-related characteristics namely: education, health insurance coverage, and job categories. Odds ratios were converted into percent increase for ease of interpretation. Results PM.sub.2.5 exposure was associated with broad-category mortality outcomes, including all non-accidental, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, respiratory, and digestive mortality. A 10-[mu]g/m.sup.3 PM.sub.2.5 higher cumulative exposure over one week (lag.sub.06) was associated with higher cause-specific mortality outcomes including hypertensive disease [2.28% (95%CI: 0.26%-4.33%)], acute ischemic heart disease [1.61% (95%CI: 0.59%-2.64%)], other forms of heart disease [2.39% (95%CI: -0.35%-5.20%)], hemorrhagic stroke [3.63% (95%CI: 0.79%-6.55%)], influenza and pneumonia [4.91% (95%CI: 2.84%-7.02%)], chronic respiratory disease [2.49% (95%CI: 0.71%-4.31%)], diseases of the liver [1.85% (95%CI: 0.31%-3.41%)], and renal failure [3.48% (95%CI: 0.79%-6.24%)]. No differences in effect size of associations were observed between age, sex and SES strata. Conclusions Exposure to PM.sub.2.5 was associated with non-accidental, broad-category and cause-specific mortality outcomes beyond the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, including specific death-causes from the digestive and genitourinary systems, with no indication of effect modification by individual-level characteristics. Keywords: PM.sub.2.5, Cause-specific mortality, Short-term exposure, Case-crossover study
Background Satellite-based PM.sub.2.5 predictions are being used to advance exposure science and air-pollution epidemiology in developed countries; including emerging evidence about the impacts of PM.sub.2.5 on acute health outcomes beyond the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, and the potential modifying effects from individual-level factors in these associations. Research on these topics is lacking in low and middle income countries. We aimed to explore the association between short-term exposure to PM.sub.2.5 with broad-category and cause-specific mortality outcomes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), and potential effect modification by age, sex, and SES characteristics in such associations. Methods We used a time-stratified case-crossover study design with 1,479,950 non-accidental deaths from the MCMA for the period of 2004-2019. Daily 1 x 1 km PM.sub.2.5 (median = 23.4 [mu]g/m.sup.3; IQR = 13.6 [mu]g/m.sup.3) estimates from our satellite-based regional model were employed for exposure assessment at the sub-municipality level. Associations between PM.sub.2.5 with broad-category (organ-system) and cause-specific mortality outcomes were estimated with distributed lag conditional logistic models. We also fit models stratifying by potential individual-level effect modifiers including; age, sex, and individual SES-related characteristics namely: education, health insurance coverage, and job categories. Odds ratios were converted into percent increase for ease of interpretation. Results PM.sub.2.5 exposure was associated with broad-category mortality outcomes, including all non-accidental, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, respiratory, and digestive mortality. A 10-[mu]g/m.sup.3 PM.sub.2.5 higher cumulative exposure over one week (lag.sub.06) was associated with higher cause-specific mortality outcomes including hypertensive disease [2.28% (95%CI: 0.26%-4.33%)], acute ischemic heart disease [1.61% (95%CI: 0.59%-2.64%)], other forms of heart disease [2.39% (95%CI: -0.35%-5.20%)], hemorrhagic stroke [3.63% (95%CI: 0.79%-6.55%)], influenza and pneumonia [4.91% (95%CI: 2.84%-7.02%)], chronic respiratory disease [2.49% (95%CI: 0.71%-4.31%)], diseases of the liver [1.85% (95%CI: 0.31%-3.41%)], and renal failure [3.48% (95%CI: 0.79%-6.24%)]. No differences in effect size of associations were observed between age, sex and SES strata. Conclusions Exposure to PM.sub.2.5 was associated with non-accidental, broad-category and cause-specific mortality outcomes beyond the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, including specific death-causes from the digestive and genitourinary systems, with no indication of effect modification by individual-level characteristics. Keywords: PM.sub.2.5, Cause-specific mortality, Short-term exposure, Case-crossover study