부산대학교 도서관

In this paper, we consider the major causes of the Asia economic crisis occurred in 1997. After analyzing four major causes proposed at that time, we propose 3 kinds of indexes that can choose the countries who might suffer financial crisis when the economic conditions surrounding those countries change for the worse in the near future. In those countries chosen from our indexes, many developed countries, including U.S., U.K., France and Japan, exist among the list despite our expectation. We don’t expect those selected developed countries will suffer financial crisis in the near future when considering their influences on international economic systems, including IMF. Rather, the selected medium size countries including Portugal, Greece etc., may be the candidates. Most selected countries are in Europe. The countries who have already suffered financial crisis in Asia in 1997 exhibit rather good features than ever at this time.