학술논문

국내 포워더의 생존 요인과 도산예측에 관한 실증 연구
An Empirical Study on Survival Factors and Prediction of Bankruptcy of Domestic Forwarder Companies
Document Type
Article
Text
Source
상업교육연구, 04/30/2019, Vol. 33, Issue 2, p. 137-158
Subject
포워더
생존요인
도산예측
생존분석
의사결정나무
Forwarder
Survival Factors
Bankruptcy Prediction
Survival Analysis
Decision Tree
Language
한국어(KOR)
ISSN
1229-8867
Abstract
In this study, we have analyzed the factors affecting the survival of the forwarder companies using the data on the forwarder companies of Korean Enterprise Data (KED), and the difference in the survival rate among the individual company groups of interest was tested. We have used the survival analysis method such as Cox 's proportional hazard model and Kaplan-Meier analysis, and also we have used decision tree and logistics regression analysis in order to predict the bankruptcy. We can use the results of the research as follows: First, for the development of the forwarding industry, it is necessary to foster a small number of elite corporations as large global corporations, and to improve the soundness or viability of companies throughout the industry. It is necessary to consider utilizing various registration systems as a means for the latter. If the government introduces more stringent standards and applies it strictly, it will contribute to improving the viability of the industry. Second, CASS subscribers maintained a relatively low closing rate in the comparison of closure rates among groups. If the CASS system used in these air cargoes is introduced to maritime transportation and the shipping companies and forwarders participate in it, it will contribute to increase the health of international logistics companies.