부산대학교 도서관

This paper analyzed US-China trade dispute using scenario analysis method. At first, We derived 5 trends of US-China trade dispute. Based on this trends, we made 2 by 2 metrix using two basic variables, that are, degree of recovery in US economy and degree of strategic competition among US and China in order to prospect US-China trade dispute systematically. 5 trends of US-China trade dispute we derived are successive trade dispute in every direction, unsettled and prolonged exchange-rate dispute, deepened trade union hegemony competition in Asia, globalization of trade dispute and unstable G2 relation between cooperation and conflict. And then as a result of scenario analysis using 2 by 2 metrix, we derived 4 scenarios which are period of co-existence, cooperation in conflict, conflict in cooperation, and hostile competition. Based on our guess of delayed recovery of US economy, we can predict dispute dominant situation. However, the situation will not go far to the hostile conflict. In this case of conflict dominant situation, the effects on Korean economy are both negative and positive. So responsive policy and strategy of Korean firms and government are very important.