부산대학교 도서관

新中国成立以来，中国高等教育规模从精英化阶段过渡到普及化阶段，实现了从“穷 国办大教育”向“大国办强教育”的战略转变. 高等教育规模合理扩展不仅是高等教育现代 化的重要内容，还直接影响高等教育结构、质量和效益的现代化. 中国实现高等教育现 代化，稳步迈入高等教育强国，必须高度关注高等教育规模变化及其对高等教育发展和 经济社会发展的影响，积极预测高等教育规模扩展的趋势及水平，出台调控政策，促进 高等教育规模持续、稳定、高水平、高质量发展. 研究发现，新中国成立以来，中国高 等教育规模扩张经历了四个阶段：1949-1960年的低速增长阶段；1961-1970年的下降阶 段；1971-1999年的中速增长阶段；2000-2020年的高速增长阶段. 本文采用供求联立方程 模型，基于1995-2019年的数据预测得出，到2035年，中国普通本专科生在校生数和普通 本专科高等教育毛入学率将分别达到8095.7万人和118.51%，实现超高程度的高等教育普 及化. 鉴于发达国家2000年以来的高等教育毛入学率平均保持在80%-90%左右，以及高 等教育发展的内在逻辑和经济社会发展对人才层次结构的多样化需求，有必要对中国的 高等教育规模进行适当控制. 为保持合理的高等教育规模及扩展速度，高质量推进高等 教育现代化，中国普通本专科在校生数到2035年应控制在5800万人左右，2019-2035年普 通本专科在校生数年增长率应控制在4.49 %以内. 为此，有必要加大市场机制对高等教 育规模的调节作用，抑制个人及家庭对高等教育的过度需求，约束高等学校的扩招冲 动，限制政府扩张高等教育规模的倾向.
Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, The scale of China’s higher education has shifted from the elite stage to the universal stage, realizing a strategic shift from “poor countries running big education” to “big countries running strong education”. Rational expansion of the scale of higher education is not only an important content of the modernization of higher education, but also directly affects the modernization of the structure, quality and benefit of higher education. China to achieve modernization of higher education, firmly in the higher education power, must be paid close attention to changes in higher education scale and its influence on the development of higher education and economic and social development, and actively to predict the trend of higher education scale expansion and level of regulation and control policy, to promote higher education scale sustainable and stable development, high level and high quality. It is found that since the founding of New China, the scale expansion of Higher education in China has experienced four stages: the slow growth stage from 1949 to 1960; The decline period 1961-1970; Medium growth from 1971 to 1999; The high growth phase from 2000 to 2020. This paper adopts the simultaneous equation model of supply and demand, and forecasts based on the data from 1995 to 2019. It is concluded that the number of undergraduates and college students and the gross enrollment rate of undergraduates and college students will reach 80.957 million and 118.51% respectively, realizing the popularization of higher education at an extremely high level by 2035. Considering that the average gross enrollment rate of higher education in developed countries has remained at about 80%-90% since 2000, and the internal logic of higher education development and the diversified demands of economic and social development on talent hierarchy, it is necessary to properly control the scale of Higher education in China. In order to maintain a reasonable scale and expansion rate of higher education, and modernize higher education with high quality, the number of ordinary college students in China should be controlled at about 58 million by 2035, and the annual growth rate of ordinary college students from 2019 to 2035 should be controlled at 4.49 percent. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the market’s regulating effect on the scale of higher education, restrain the excessive demand of individuals and families for higher education, restrain the impulse of college enrollment expansion, and limit the tendency of the government to expand the scale of higher education.