부산대학교 도서관

Climate variability and vegetation disturbance as critical driving factors significantly affect the regional hydrology in forested watersheds. Yet, due to landscape heterogeneities such as topography, soil characteristics, climate conditions, and vegetation types, hydrological responses to climate and forest changes and associated mechanisms have not been fully understood. The forested Stellako watershed, a typical forest-disturbed area in Canada, has been studied to assess the annual streamflow affected by climate variability and forest disturbance. The study period was from 1951 to 2018. The methods include the modified double mass curve (MDMC), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention, and multivariate ARIMA. In the Stellako watershed, 1980 was identified as a breakpoint in the yearly time series between 1951 and 2018. The 1951-1979 period was considered the reference. From 1980 to 2018, the streamflow decreased by 14.69 and 26.18 mm due to climate and forest changes, respectively. The annual runoff variation was mainly attributed to forest disturbances contributing 60.78% of the total variations. Thus, a timely assessment of the runoff variety at a watershed scale has been obtained. The developed methodology can be applied to quantify the disturbance effects at a watershed or regional scale and develop watershed and forest management strategies under future climate and forest changes.