부산대학교 도서관

The tethered fire extinguishing UAV has the properties of strong coupling and multi-state, and the typical reliability analysis methods can not consider the correlation and timing between its subsystems or components. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a Phased Mission System(PMS) reliability assessment method based on discrete-time Bayesian network for complex systems. Firstly, the fault tree containing all events is mapped into Bayesian network(BN). Secondly, discrete the mission time, and give a calculation representing the correlation of each phase using conditional probability. Finally, the system failure probability the basic fault events in the final phase are calculated. It is verified that this method can effectively evaluate the reliability and safety of complex systems, and provide a useful references for the design and improvement of tethered fire extinguishing UAV pipe and cable system.