부산대학교 도서관

For the needs of reliability assessment of tethered large-load fire extinguishing UAV under small-sample and multisource priori information conditions, the paper proposes a Bayesian assessment method that fuses credibility and uncertainty. First, a credibility model based on bootstrap and outlier test is established to give the credibility of priori data under small sample conditions, and information entropy is used to measure the uncertainty of the priori distribution, and then the fusion weight is obtained by combining the two factors based on the idea of weighted fusion, and then the evaluation results are obtained by using the Bayesian principle. The method is simple and objective, and can reasonably fuse all kinds of priori information. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the method.