학술논문
Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
Document Type
Conference
Author
Source
2006 IEEE Aerospace Conference Aerospace Conference Aerospace Conference, 2006 IEEE. :1-11 2006
Subject
Language
ISSN
1095-323X
Abstract
The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘ loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its ‘ capacity’ to withstand these ‘ loads’, on the other. The problem is to determine and ‘ predict’ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for ‘ tipping points’, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of ‘ tipping’ and enhance prospects for stability.