부산대학교 도서관

The serial application of a new technology requires a positive monetary valuation of the technologies overall costs including the development project and manufacturing benefits. The endeavor of planning and therefore also assessing an immature technology's serial application is severely hampered by strong advances in the technology's development. In most cases, previous research has not taken future stages of development into account. Hence, this paper aims at assessing and planning an immature technology's serial application under consideration of future stages of development. The methodology shall be introduced using the example of the additive manufacturing process of selective laser melting (SLM). For the purpose of reaching this objective, a cost model supporting the planning process shall be elaborated and combined with a scenario analysis for forecasting future technological development.