학술논문

Interpretable Classifiers Based on Time-Series Motifs for Lane Change Prediction
Document Type
Periodical
Source
IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Vehicles IEEE Trans. Intell. Veh. Intelligent Vehicles, IEEE Transactions on. 8(7):3954-3961 Jul, 2023
Subject
Transportation
Robotics and Control Systems
Components, Circuits, Devices and Systems
Prediction algorithms
Behavioral sciences
Road transportation
Intelligent vehicles
Machine learning algorithms
Closed box
Approximation algorithms
Lane change predictor
automated driving function
mixture of experts
interpretable machine learning
Language
ISSN
2379-8858
2379-8904
Abstract
In this article, we address the problem of using non-interpretable Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in safety critical applications, especially automated driving functions. We focus on the lane change prediction of vehicles on a highway. In order to understand wrong decisions, which may lead to accidents, we want to interpret the reasons for a ML algorithm's decision making. To this end, we use motif discovery—a data mining method—to obtain sub-sequences representing typical driving behavior. With the help of these meaningful sub-sequences (motifs), we can study typical driving maneuvers on a highway. On top of this, we propose to replace non-interpretable ML algorithms with an interpretable alternative: a Mixture of Experts (MoE) classifier. We present an MoE classifier consisting of different $k$-Nearest Neighbors ($k$-NN) classifiers trained only on motifs, which represent a few samples from the dataset. These $k$-NN-based experts are fully interpretable, making the lane change prediction fully interpretable, too. Using our proposed MoE classifier, we are able to solve the lane change prediction problem in an interpretable manner. These MoE classifiers show a classification performance comparable to common non-interpretable ML methods from the literature.